Reform in Arab World Stagnant, Paper Says

Although some Arab rulers understand that their political systems must change to remain competitive in the world economy, managed reform efforts undertaken so far have shied away from substantive changes that would significantly impact Arab regimes, a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says. The report, titled "Incumbent Regimes and the 'King's Dilemma' in the Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform," was written by Carnegie Senior Associates Marina S. Ottaway and Michele Dunne.

The Carnegie Endowment says that Arab regimes have made some progress with economic and social reform efforts, but that moves that would endanger their control of the state are repeatedly put off. Instead of taking concrete steps that could fundamentally alter political traditions in Arab countries, the report says, some regimes are implementing reform programs that maintain current power concentrations, such as Bahrain and Egypt have done, or that grant more individual freedoms without substantively changing governmental institutions, such as in Morocco.

Arab regimes have long been criticized for their tight control of citizen populations and repressive measures taken agains women and minorities. Real power is most often held by an elite few who use military and internal security forces to maintain their power. Many times the ruling government is made up of members of one family and power passes from one generation to the next without popular representation or free elections.

Reform efforts are often fought from within Arab countries as dissident groups try to wrestle some measure of power from the ruling elite. Often individual dissidents and opposition groups are met with harsh reprisals from the Arab governments. TheStar.com of Toronto, Canada, says of a recent decision by Saudi King Abdullah to a woman sentenced to 200 lashes after being gang raped, "...reformers and extremists are quietly battling for the kingdom's soul."

King Abdullah, who TheStar says promised some reform efforts when he came to power two years ago, was quoted as saying, "We cannot remain rigid while the surrounding world is changing." Egypt, too, has pressed ahead with reform efforts, the Chinese publication Xinhuanet notes, saying that the north African nation is making progress in the political, economic, and social sectors. Much of the pressure for reform comes from western nations and particularly from the United States and Western Europe.

Key findings of the Carnegie report include the existence of an increased level of understanding concerning the necessity of reform, the recognition that diplomatic pressure from both the United States and Europe has supported limited reform and has not set high enough expectations for Arab regimes, an understanding that the status quo is likely to continue in many Arab countries, with limited reform taking precedence of substantive change that could endanger ruling regimes, and a recognition that reformers possess little wherewithal to effect change. The situation in Arab countries is not likely to change soon, and repressive governments will continue to use harsh measures to preserve their hold on power and keep Arab populations in the dark.

Copies of the report are available for download on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace web site. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization that attempts to foster among nation states while urging the United States to be actively involved in international affairs.

Sources: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace web site, TheStar.com web site, and the Xinhuanet web site.