Report: Venezuela's Hugo Chavez Has Six Months to Live

COMMENTARY | If Roger Noriega is right, Hugo Chavez, the mercurial dictator of Venezuela and self-appointed archenemy of the United States, has not long to live thanks to his cancer spreading faster than expected. Naturally, the Venezuelan people are being lied to about it.

Chavez, whose bombastic behavior recalls Fidel Castro in his prime, went to Cuba recently for cancer treatment. The treatment from Michael Moore's favorite health care system seems not to have been very effective.

It can be hoped that the imminent translation of Chavez to his just reward will lead to a restoration of freedom in his unhappy South American country. Chavez's madcap misrule, including the summary seizure of private property, would have destroyed the economy of Venezuela were it not for its oil wealth. As it is, things are not going very well, especially for that country's underclass, which still supports Chavez to a certain extent.

The question arises, after Chavez, then what? The deaths of dictators, even peacefully in bed, have often resulted in a loosening of government control and even a rebirth of freedom in the countries they terrorized. Economic reform came to China after the death of Chairman Mao. Francisco Franco's death brought about a constitutional monarchy in Spain.

The other alternative, just as likely as a return of democracy, is instability followed by military rule in the old-fashioned South American manner. Chavez has done much to crush opposition parties and to stoke the expectations of his supporters. His death could set off a tinderbox that can only be smothered by troops and a general with an iron fist.

Do not look for the Obama administration to be much help attempting to shape events. Obama, as has been his policy with dictators, has tried to befriend Chavez, even to appease him. This did not have much effect other than encourage the dictator's rogue behavior even more. If post-Chavez Venezuela achieves a happy ending, it will not be because anything that President Obama or his State Department is able to do. Indeed, ironically, it may be better for the country if Chavez holds out until a new president of the United States, with a better grasp of how to shape world events, is installed.