Republican Candidates for President, 2012: The Final Field

My Thoughts on the Final List of Republicans Who Are Running

Peter Flom
With the announcements by Sarah Palin and Chris Christie that they are NOT running, it appears that the field of Republican candidates for president is now final. And here they are:

The only female among the Republican candidates for president, Michele Bachmann is a congressperson from Minnesota. After announcing that she was a Republican candidate for President, she surged initially, winning the Ames straw poll in Iowa, but has since fallen precipitously in the polls. Michele Bachmann is very conservative. Very very conservative. An early favorite of the Tea Party, Bachmann may be too nuts, even for them. Michele Bachmann has stated that The Lion King is gay propaganda, she thinks eliminating the minimum wage is a good idea, and she is willing to break the law by not fully filling out her census form.

Here is a poem I wrote about her and her run for President

Herman Cain is the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, and the only African-American candidate for president among the Republicans. How being a CEO qualifies someone to be president is not clear, and his record as CEO is not that good, sales were flat during his tenure. He has never held elective office before. Herman Cain has recently surged in the polls, and is now running roughly even with Mitt Romney as frontrunner. Cain has some problems: He doesn't seem to believe in freedom of religion, he would make any Muslims he hired sign a special oath, he thinks communities should be able to forbid the building of mosques. He has also said that Blacks have been brainwashed to vote for Democrats

December 3 update on Herman Cain. Since I wrote this, several women have accused Herman Cain of inappropriate sexual acts, and one woman, Ginger White, has claimed that she and Cain had a 13 year affair. Herman Cain's poll numbers have fallen a lot.

Here is a poem I wrote about Herman Cain

Newt Gingrich is a former congressman and speaker of the House of Representatives. Newt Gingrich is famous for putting out a contract on America. His campaign for president in 2012 has never gained much traction, and his poll numbers are poor.

December 3 update on Newt Gingrich. Since I wrote this, Newt has surged to the lead, or at least a tie for the lead with Mitt Romney. However, some of Newt Gingrich's more outrageous statements (e.g. that schools should use poor children as janitors) may catch up with him. Also, Newt Gingrich's relationships with women may become an issue (he is thrice married and has had multiple affairs).

Here's his poem

Jon Huntsman is a former ambassador to China. He is by far the least conservative of the Republican candidates for president, but (perhaps as a result) his campaign trails badly, getting 2% or less in polls.

Ron Paul is a self-proclaimed libertarian; he is a congressman from Texas. Some of his views on social and military issues (e.g. he opposed the Patriot Act, he thinks states should be allowed to legalize gay marriage) are anathema to the Republican base. He is for a radically smaller government, including a smaller military. Ron Paul's support in polls has been steady, but he has no chance of winning the nomination for Republican candidate for president.

Here is a poem about Ron Paul

Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, announced his run for president a bit later than the other candidates, and surged to the lead in polls just after his announcement. But he has fallen sharply since, due to several issues, including his performance at debates and his advocacy of giving all 6th grade girls a vaccine for human papiloma virus. More recently, one of Rick Perry's key supporters called Mormonism a cult, and said Mitt Romney is not a Christian, but Perry has dissociated himself from that statement. In addition, as attention is drawn to his record in Texas, the "Texas miracle" is being revealed as more of a nightmare.

I've also written a poem about Rick Perry


Charles (Buddy) Roemer, former Governor of Louisiana (as a Democrat), does seem to still be running for president (as a Republican). Buddy Roemer isn't even included in most polls

Mitt Romney is a businessman and former Governor of Massachusetts. Unlike many Republican candidates for president, his poll numbers are relatively constant. His problem is that he does not appeal to the more conservative Tea Party side of the party. Mitt Romney has also had problems with flip-flopping on major issues, including health care policy, abortion and gay rights. In Romney's previous run for president, he came under some fire for driving with his dog on the roof of his car, and for his statement that his sons had not served in the military but had served America by working in his political campaign.

December 3 update on Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney continues to struggle with his conservative credentials, and be unable to open a lead in the polls. The latest "not-Romney" is Newt Gingrich.

Of course, I have a poem for Romney

Rick Santorum is also running for president but has not drawn much attention and has very poor poll numbers

Sources:
Bachmann: http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/06/16/246618/bachmann-craziest-quotes/

Cain: http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/herman-cain-ill-hire-muslims-in-my-administration-if-they-take-a-loyalty-oath/
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/07/17/cain-says-communities-have-right-to-ban-mosques/
http://www.newser.com/story/129765/cain-blacks-brainwashed-into-supporting-democrats.html
http://jayraskin.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/complete-godfathers-pizza-sales-figure-from-the-herman-cain-years/

Gingrich: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/01/newt-gingrich-poll_n_869610.html

Paul: Wikipedia

Perry and Texas http://texaslsg.org/texasonthebrink/

Polls in general: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html
DISCLOSURE OF MATERIAL CONNECTION:
The Contributor has no connection to nor was paid by the brand or product described in this content.

Published by Peter Flom

I am a statistician, working with a wide variety of clients, mostly researchers in psychology, education, medicine, social sciences and other fields. I also have given talks and written articles on learning...  View profile

7 Comments

Post a Comment
  • Michael Segers10/12/2011

    Great report!

  • Lady Samantha10/9/2011

    Will you please run, Peter?! This way I can vote for somone sane!

  • Don Rothra10/8/2011

    Nice work. This election year is going to be frightening. More so than right now. The scariest part is the possibility that Obama could get a second term.

  • Mike Oberg10/8/2011

    "Buddy" Roemer is the only candidate talking about our #1 problem in Washington -- too much corporate money floating around! I agree with those who want "to take their country back", but I believe it is the corporations that control it now, not some group of poorly-organized liberals!

  • Mary Oberg10/8/2011

    Nice summary and commentary on the Republican candidates. I am so grateful that Sarah Palin is NOT running!

  • Orchiolum10/8/2011

    My sense is that, except Romney, they're all toast. And I doubt, at least right now, that even he can beat Obama. The Republicans may have set themselves up for a Obama second term. Fine buy me:)

  • Michele Starkey10/8/2011

    My vote is still up for grabs and I am carefully listening, reading and watching ALL of the candidates in this very important election :) cheers!

Displaying Comments

To comment, please sign in to your Yahoo! account, or sign up for a new account.