Republicans Fight Wars--Democrats Mostly Observe

A Military Times (2007) survey found that 48.9% of U.S. troops self-identify as Republicans and just 14.4% as Democrats. This stunning disparity between the two major political parties and military service bears out among civilian veterans as well. As set forth below, there is a statistically significant positive correlation between congressional districts whose voters favor Republicans in presidential elections and civilian veteran populations. Comparatively, there is a statistically significant negative correlation between congressional districts whose voters favor Democrats in presidential elections and civilian veteran populations.

Eight of the ten congressional districts with the largest veteran populations are partisan Republican districts and two are partisan Democratic districts. By contrast, eight of the ten congressional districts with the smallest veteran populations are partisan Democratic districts and two are partisan Republican districts. The following is a list of these twenty congressional districts, their general geographic areas, percentage veteran populations, and Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) values.

Largest Civilian Veteran Populations

1. Virginia-2 (Virginia Beach, 20.2%, CPVI Republican +5);
2. Florida-1 (Pensacola, 19.6%, CPVI Republican +21);
3. Colorado-5 (Colorado Springs, 18.6%, CPVI Republican +14);
4. Virginia-1 (Williamsburg, 17%, CPVI Republican +7);
5. Arizona-8 (Oro Valley, 16.7%, CPVI Republican +4);
6. Washington-6 (Tacoma, 16.6%, CPVI Democrat +5);
7. Florida-6 (Ocala, 16.2%, CPVI Republican +10);
8. Florida-5 (Brookeville, 16.1% CPVI Republican +9);
9. Washington-9 (Olympia, 15.8%, CPVI Democrat +5);
10. North Carolina-3 (Outer Banks, 15.6%, CPVI Republican +16)

Smallest Civilian Veteran Populations

1. New York-12 (Lower East Side, 2.6%, CPVI Democrat +33);
2. New York-16 (Bronx, 2.7%, CPVI Democrat +41);
3. California-31 (East Hollywood, 2.7%, Democrat +29);
4. Illinois-4 (Chicago, 2.8%, CPVI Democrat +32);
5. New York-11 (Brooklyn, 2.9%, CPVI Democrat +38);
6. New York-10 (Brooklyn, 3.1%, CPVI Democrat +38);
7. New York-15 (Harlem, 3.3%, CPVI Democrat +41);
8. New Jersey-13 (Jersey City, 3.4%, CPVI Democrat +21);
9. Florida-21 (Hialeah, 3.4%, CPVI Democrat +5);
10. California-34 (South Los Angeles, 3.4%, CPVI Democrat +22).

Null Hypotheses

1. There is no correlation between congressional districts whose voters favor Democratic presidential candidates and civilian veteran populations.

2. There is no correlation between congressional districts whose voters favor Republican presidential candidates and civilian veteran populations.

Alternative Hypotheses

1. There is a correlation between congressional districts whose voters favor Democratic presidential candidates and civilian veteran populations.

2. There is a correlation between congressional districts whose voters favor Republican presidential candidates and civilian veteran populations.

Statistical Correlation Measure

The statistical correlation measure used herein is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (denoted by r) which measures the linear correlation between two variables X and Y, giving a value between -1 and +1. The closer the r statistic is to +1, the greater the positive correlation between two variables. The closer the r statistic is to -1, the greater the negative correlation between two variables.

For purposes of the studies herein, an r statistic of +1 would indicate a perfect positive correlation between congressional districts whose voters are strongly partisan in presidential elections and civilian veteran populations. Alternatively, an r statistic of -1 would indicate a perfect negative correlation between congressional districts whose voters are strongly partisan in presidential elections and civilian veteran populations.

An r statistic of 0 indicates no statistical correlation between congressional districts whose voters are strongly partisan in presidential elections and civilian veteran populations.

Data

X variables are the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) values of the 436 U.S. congressional districts: measures of how strongly the voters of each district leaned toward one political party compared to the nation as a whole in the last two presidential elections. Y variables are the percentage of residents in each of the 436 U.S. congressional districts who are civilian veterans.

Statistical Significance: Critical Value Range

-.09 to .09 (434 degrees of freedom at an alpha of .05; two-tailed test)*

*Explanation: In order to reject either null hypothesis and accept the corresponding alternative hypothesis, the r statistic for X and Y must be < -.09 or > .09. In such a case, there is at least a 95% probability that the correlation did not simply occur by mere chance. Any r statistic between -.09 and .09 indicates no statistically significant correlation between X and Y.

Findings

Congressional districts whose voters favor Democratic presidential candidates and civilian veteran populations: r = -.55 (p-value=.000000)

Congressional districts whose voters favor Republican presidential candidates and civilian veteran populations: r = .55 (p-value=.000000)

Conclusions

The alternative hypotheses are accepted because the respective r statistics of -.55 and .55 are well beyond the critical value range of -.09 to .09.

Congressional districts whose voters favor Republican presidential candidates are positively correlated with civilian veteran populations. Conversely, congressional districts whose voters favor Democratic presidential candidates are negatively correlated with civilian veteran populations.

The p-values for these studies are .000000; therefore, there is less than a 1 in 1,000,000 chance that these correlations occurred circumstantially rather than because of a statistically significant relationship.

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Source(s):

"Cook Partisan Voting Index," The Cook Political Report
"Politics, Civilians and Policy," Military Times
"2006-2008 American Community Survey (ACS)," U.S. Census Bureau