Republicans to Take Over House -- Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report, as quoted by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire, has announced that it is projecting that the Republicans will gain at least 40 seats in the House in the November elections, one more than needed to achieve a takeover:

"For the first time, our internal race-by-race model estimates a GOP gain of over 40 seats. We are revising our House forecast to a Republican gain of at least 40 seats, the minimum to give them majority status, and very possibly substantially more... By the time we release new House ratings this week, eight Democratic open seats will be in the Lean or Likely Republican columns, 45 Democratic seats will be in the Toss Up column, and 30 seats will be in the Lean Democratic column, for a total of over 80 Democratic seats at substantial risk."

A Republican takeover of the House this November has been predicted by a number of pundits for weeks. The confirmation from the prestigious and nonpartisan Cook Political Report has, barring any unexpected political development in the less than two months remaining in the 2010 campaign, has essentially sealed the doom of Democratic control and of Nancy Pelosi's Speakership.

The Cook Political Report announcement is the latest bad news for President Obama and the congressional Democrats. A Washington Post/ABC Poll suggests that 53 percent of likely voters will vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, as opposed to 40 percent for a Democrat, an unprecedented number in recent years.

The cause of the collapse of Democratic political fortunes is not too hard to discern. A combination of unpopular legislation, such as health care reform, coupled with persistent economic distress has resulted in polling numbers for Democrats entering a death spiral.

In a desperate attempt to stem losses, Democrats are already plotting what amounts to "political triage," withdrawing money and abandoning incumbents they deemed to be doomed and concentrating resources on candidates they think can be saved. This strategy is an admission that even the Democrats believe control of the House is in jeopardy.

The psychological effects of impending Republican takeover of the House cannot be overstated. While a sense of doom and gloom descends upon Democrats, Republicans are feeling almost giddy with the prospects of victory in November. That in turn will tend to affect how fervently candidates will campaign, perhaps exacerbating Democratic losses.

The increasing confidence of a Republican House takeover will likely affect the last session of Congress before the election. What sort of things the Democrats will propose as a last-ditch effort to save their seats cannot be accurately predicted. Tax cuts? Rolling back parts of health care reform? Anything may be possible.

Sources: Republicans Now Likely to Take House, Taegan Goddard Political Wire, September 7th, 2010

WaPo/ABC poll puts GOP up by 13 in generic Congressional ballot, Ed Morrissey, Hot Air, September 7th, 2010

Democrats plan political triage to retain House, Jeff Zeleny and Carl Hulse, New York Times, September 5th, 2010