Re-Thinking the NBA Draft

Since I wrote my NBA Draft preview, I have followed the articles and pre-draft camps and workouts. During this time, I have changed my mind about several picks and even my rationale for draft picks.

The NBA is a superstar-driven league. Every great team, except the Detroit Pistons, has a bona-fide star. They have a game-changer, someone the opponent has to game-plan against. Cleveland has LeBron James; San Antonio has Tim Duncan; Los Angeles has Kobe Bryant; New Orleans has Chris Paul; Miami has Dwyane Wade; and Boston has Paul Pierce. Acquiring such a player often requires luck: Cleveland and San Antonio got lucky winning the NBA Lottery to get the #1 pick in the right draft. Los Angeles managed to acquire Kobe Bryant in a draft-day deal when he was a skinny high school kid. New Orleans and Miami benefited from other teams mis-calculating Paul's and Wade's talents.

When picking #1, the organization cannot worry about position. If a team has a chance to draft a game-changer, they have to pick that player, even if they have a great player at that position. In 2003, Detroit picked Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade. One reason they overlooked Anthony was the emergence of Tayshaun Prince at the small forward position, and the Pistons were set at guard with Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton. However, while Billups, Hamilton and Prince are very good players, none is a #1 player. None is the guy, like a Kobe Bryant. If the Pistons added Anthony or Wade, they would probably have at least one more NBA Championship, as they would have added the dynamic go-to guy that they lack.

For this reason, if I ran the Chicago Bulls, I would shock the world and draft O.J. Mayo. I like Mayo for two reasons: (1) He is talented. He has an NBA-quality to his game. (2) He works hard. This is a talent, too. With the number one pick, a team drafts the face of the franchise, the player that the franchise expects to lead it to a championship. The only players who accomplish this do so by outworking the opposition. From what I have read, I think Mayo loves the game and the competition and has the deep-down desire to be one of the greatest players. I can see Mayo leading a team to an NBA championship as its star. I do not see Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose being "the man" on a championship team.

On the flip side, Brook Lopez would plummet if I re-did my mock draft. I like Lopez as a player and thought he was underrated during his first and second seasons at Stanford. However, I have read too many articles suggesting he does not love basketball and has numerous other interests. I would not want to spend a high pick on a "Renaissance Man" who spends his off-seasons pursuing numerous endeavors. While noble and endearing, as a General Manager, I want someone with a singular focus on winning and being the best. I get that sense from Mayo; I do not get it from Lopez, which would worry me.

In 2006, I wrote an article titled, "Potential is a Dangerous Word as NBA Draft Approaches." In it, I argued that NBA teams often draft based on potential in terms of height and length, while they undervalue other talents like competitiveness, work ethic and desire. As I wrote, "One common basketball adage is that you cannot teach height. However, according to [Marcus] Buckingham's research, you cannot teach competitiveness, focus, discipline or other talents that [K. Anders] Ericsson would argue are equally, if not more important to one's success."

While I maintain this statement is correct, I think an NBA General Manager must look at the draft differently depending on his team's personnel and his draft position. Teams drafting in the top 10 are generally bad. I do not think these teams can be picky about position - they must draft the best talent available. Now, not all teams view players the same way. Many General Managers may see Beasley or Rose as the top talent in the draft. If that is what they believe, they must make that pick regardless of position needs. If drafting around 7-10, the GM must decide who he thinks could be a #2 player on a championship team. Is that player Joe Alexander? Darrel Arthur? Anthony Randolph? Whomever the GM decides is the best talent - the player most likely to develop into a key piece of a championship contender - is the player to draft.

Beyond the lottery, teams made the play-offs this season. Some teams may need to add one more player to the rotation to make a jump in competitiveness next season. Some teams may have no room for a new player drafted late in the first round. These needs determine the GM's decision.

For a team like New Orleans, Phoenix or San Antonio, they may need to add just one piece to their rotation to move forward next season. These teams need to ignore "upside" and "potential," and draft the player most ready to contribute next season and add something to their rotation which they currently lack. If Phoenix can add a defensive post player like Robin Lopez to play behind Shaq and next to Amare Stoudemire, he could solidify their interior defense, probably the Suns' biggest weakness, while adding a perimeter shooter/defender like Brandon Rush could solve another major weakness. New Orleans needs an upgrade at SG and a back-up post player: someone like Rush, Courtney Lee or Bill Walker at SG or a post like Marresse Speights, JJ Hickson or Devon Hardin could put the Hornets over the top next season.

Other teams, like Portland, have a great deal of depth and have their two superstars (Roy and Oden) and a #3 supporting player (Aldridge). They have the opportunity to draft for need if a player they covet is available (Russell Westbrook would fit perfectly as their PG, while Joe Alexander or Danilo Gallinari would make an intriguing SF). Or, the Blazers can draft for upside. In almost every draft, there is a player who drops because they are somewhat unknown or they have an injury concern or they are a late bloomer. If a team can identify this type of player, they can land a potential superstar, or at least a pivotal supporting player, beyond the lottery.

In this year's draft, the players most likely to be drafted outside the top 10, but develop into top 10 talents are:

Kansas State's Bill Walker: When I saw him play early in the season, I did not like his game. But, before he injured his knee, he was a projected top five talent. Talent does not disappear. If a team believes he will return to his pre-injury form, he is a steal outside the top 10. If he regains his explosiveness, he is a strong, powerful shooting guard with All-Star potential. The teams at the end of the lottery (Sacramento, Portland and Golden State) do not need a SG as they have Kevin Martin, Brandon Roy and Stephen Jackson. However, picking a potential top 5 player in the early teens may be a gamble worth taking, especially for Golden State. While the Warriors have other needs, he could be an explosive scorer in the Warriors' system.

Ohio State's Kosta Koufos: When I watched him play, I thought he was highly skilled and a sure-fire lottery pick. He settles for the outside shot too much, but if a team uses his strengths, and he adds strength, he is certainly a top ten talent. He is a better prospect than Sacramento's Spencer Hawes who was selected #10 last season. Charlotte, at #9, needs a skilled offensive complement to Emeka Okafur, and Koufos would provide that. If he plays in a system that runs a lot of pick-and-rolls or that uses a high post - like a Rick Adelman team - his value increases. He's not going to be a banger, but he has every opportunity to end up as a better NBA player than Hawes or Toronto's Andrea Bargnani.

West Virginia's Joe Alexander: I believe Alexander gets drafted in the top 10. However, nobody has him in the top 10 in a current mock draft. Alexander is a late bloomer, as he has only played for a couple years. He is an explosive athlete with good shooting mechanics and size for his position. I picked him 8th in my original mock draft, but I believe he will be better than the 8th best player from this draft.

Memphis' Chris Douglas-Roberts: I'm not sure what CDR failed to prove during his time at Memphis, but most project him as a late teen's pick at best. CDR will be a scorer at the next level. He is crafty and has an unusual skill set that some smart team will put to use. He is the type of player the Warriors at 14 or the Raptors at 17 should take. He would be an excellent complimentary player in Toronto with Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon.

Oregon's Malik Hairston: Hairston is a second round pick, if he gets picked at all, but he has enough athleticism and basketball ability to develop into a very good player and a second round steal. In the right system (Detroit, New Orleans, Phoenix, Utah, Lakers), he could excel. If he loves basketball and commits himself to being the great player that people projected when he was in high school, he could develop into the steal of the draft.

As many people have said, you can't teach talent. In the NBA, teams justify drafting big guys for this reason. However, with young post players who need considerable work, the rookie contract expires before a team really gets a look at the player, like Robert Swift or Sene in Seattle or Milicic in Detroit. In some cases, drafting a big man with potential is the smart pick. I believe Kosta Koufos and Robin Lopez will make very good picks if they are drafted in the middle of the first round, as projected, while Brook Lopez and Michael Beasley will likely be drafted too high, only because there are questions about their desire.

The physical workouts are important, but they might impair an organization's decision-making. I would value the internal characteristics as much as the physical characteristics. The best players are the hardest workers. Throughout the play-offs, people have commented on Kobe Bryant's work ethic rubbing off on his teammates, and Kevin Garnett's passion rubbing off on his teammates. With a high pick, you have to pick a player with these traits. Picking a player who is ambivalent toward the game is a set-back to the organization at a time when the high pick offers the hope of future glory. Later in the draft, teams can go in one of two ways depending on needs and personnel. For some teams, they need a player who can contribute immediately and offer a skill that the team lacks. Late in the first round, teams draft role players, not superstars. However, if the team is relatively set in its rotation, it can opt to draft for potential and hope to land a future star. San Antonio has taken this approach the past couple seasons with Tiago Splitter and Ian Mahinmi (and even Tony Parker to a degree). Boston and Portland are in the best position to take this approach this year.

Drafting is an inexact science. However, making the right picks builds or sustains success, while mistakes can set a franchise back for years.