Rising Violent Crime and the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports in Post 9-11 America

For the second year straight, the FBI reports that violent crime in the United States has risen. According to statistics revealed in early June 2007, there was a 1.3% increase in the number of violent acts committed in 2006, with murders and robberies accounting for most of the increase.

Last year, the FBI reported that the number of violent crimes increased in 2005 by 2.3%. That was the first increase in four years and the most significant increase in over a decade.

According to the report, most of the increase occurred in large cities, where murders and robberies each rose by approximately 6%. The report also reveals that the cities most affected include Orlando and Miami in Florida, Oakland and San Diego in California, Phoenix Arizona, Corpus Christi Texas, Grand Rapids Michigan, Reno Nevada and Little Rock Arkansas. In fact, violent crime rose in every region of the country, except in the Northeast. The West experienced the largest increase at 2.8%.

A recent Justice Department study and a number of famous criminologists cite an increase in violence by local gangs or "street crews," youth violence and gun crimes as causal. Criminologists cited in the Washington Post add that there are fewer police on city streets, blaming the Bush administration's shift in focus from local crime to terrorism which has meant funding cuts for local law enforcement.

It should be noted that the increase is relatively small and, while murders nationwide increased overall by 0.3%, they declined in some large cities and non metropolitan areas -- almost outweighing the increase in big cities. Also, murder is a comparatively rare crime. Although violent crime in general is less commonplace than property crime, crimes such as rape are more frequently committed than murder. And assault is the most frequently committed offense. Therefore, it is relevant to point out that the number of rapes declined by nearly 2% and assaults fell slightly. Further, the more commonplace crimes of property declined nearly 3%.

Before we panic about these findings, there are several things we should keep in mind about the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), on which all FBI crime statistics are based.

First, the UCR are compiled by the FBI from police statistics. Police departments throughout the nation voluntarily report their statistics to the national agency. Although today most states have mandated that police departments participate, it is very possible that some of the smaller departments do not bother. Although these departments might be very scattered and few in number, they are also the departments in communities least likely to be plagued by crime. Their failure to report their statistics skews the UCR, suggesting higher crime rates for the country than the reality.

Second, the UCR tell us the number of offenses reported to the police, the number recorded by the police, the number cleared by an arrest (meaning the police consider the case solved because someone was arrested -- regardless of the outcome of the case in court), and the number of people arrested and their demographics (i.e., personal characteristics such as race, age, gender, etc.). Also, the UCR are divided into two categories -- Part I and Part II crimes. Part I crimes are considered the index crimes which are used to indicate crime trends. They are murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft and arson. Part II crimes include all others. The difference between Part I and Part II offenses is not that the former are more serious or more frequently committed than the latter, but rather Part I crimes are more often reported to the police, are not consensual and are less likely to be affected by administrative policy than crimes such as prostitution, drug offenses, etc.

Second, as suggested above, there is plenty of reason to believe that many crimes are not reported to the police. Although this is less a problem for something like murder or motor vehicle theft, it's certainly less true for some index crimes -- most notably forcible rape. Reasons people have given for not reporting their victimization to the police include they felt the offense was too minor, they feared reprisal, they felt guilty or ashamed, they believed the police would be ineffective and/or there wasn't enough proof, and they felt it was a personal matter. Not reporting can present two problems for the UCR. It might underestimate the amount of crime. Or, alternatively, changes in reporting behavior might appear as actual changes in the crime rate.

What this means in terms of the current FBI report is that, while the change may reflect an actual increase in the number of crimes, it is also possible that the increase is actually the result of more people reporting crimes to the police. Perhaps, what has increased is American's sensitivity to crime and awareness of unusual or suspicious events Post 9-11. No longer suffering from "bystander apathy" which led Kitty Genovese's neighbors to stand by and watch her being repeatedly stabbed and subsequently to tell the police they saw nothing, Americans today are constantly being encouraged to report anything unusual or suspicious to the police. Simultaneously, fear of crime has risen in this country. It is certainly probable that the combination has resulted in more reporting.

Third, police recording patterns can affect the UCR. Changes in departmental policies, equipment and police practices have a significant impact on the crimes they record and the arrests they make. For example, prior to the 1970s and the Women's Movement, the police were much more likely to "unfound" (i.e., not write a report) when a woman reported being raped than they are now due to departmental changes in policy and procedures. Similarly, in the past, they would tell an abusive husband to take a walk around the block, calm down and then return home. Today, many state legislators have mandated that they arrest. As another example, consider the statistics on biased or hate crimes. Prior to the statutes legislating against this behavior, the crime was recorded as a general offense. Thus, although the behavior existed, the crime did not. Today, many departments have units specializing in biased crimes, or they refer such crimes to the prosecutor's biased crime unit. Such changes made the respective offense rates jump dramatically.

Like citizens, the police might be even more alert and more likely to intervene and "found" a case today than they were a few years ago. This might be because of increased awareness of possible terrorist activity and new training and procedures resulting from 9-11.

Fourth, the UCR are based on absolute numbers. They're not based on population, so they do not represent a rate. This makes it difficult to compare places and times. For example, three sexual assaults on a university campus located in a large metropolitan city are not comparable to three sexual assaults in a small, rural college. Similarly, 100 murders in a rural area are not comparable to 100 murders in a big city. And 100 murders in New York City in 1907 are not comparable to 100 murders in New York City in 2007.

As noted above, the current increase in the number of violent crimes was most apparent in large cities, and, in fact, while violent crime decreased in other areas. This might not reflect a rise in the crime rate, but rather an increase in the population size of our larger cities.

Finally, other limitations of the UCR include a lack of standardized definitions or interpretations of what constitutes a particular criminal offense, attempts are mixed with completed crimes and only the highest offense is measured by the UCR. Each of these can inflate or deflate the crime statistics presented by the FBI.

In conclusion, the UCR alone are not a sufficient indication of changes in crime. For a more accurate index, we need to look also at other measurements of crime -- such as victimization surveys. The UCR do serve a purpose, however. Besides giving us a general idea of possible trends, they tell us who is being processed through the system and how the police are operating. In other words, they tell us what crimes the police are recording and who they arresting. Considering the significant impact police practices have on our criminal justice system, this is no small contribution to our knowledge.