Roger Federer US Open Series: Can He Move Past Losses to a Slam Victory?

After a slow start to an eventual three-set victory in the opening round of the US Open, over Colombian opponent Santiago Giraldo, fans and critics are still feeling a bit uneasy about Roger Federer's chances of maintaining his spot in the Big 4 world tennis ranking along with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray. No one stays on top forever in professional sports, and someday it's just going to be a fact that Federer can no longer run with the big dogs. The question is, is that time now?

There are plenty of armchair critics when it comes to Roger Federer's aging career. Turning the big 3-0, as Roger did in early August, is considered a milestone in professional tennis--a milestone that signals imminent retirement. The fact that Novak Djokovic is having a record-breaking year, added to Federer's lack of a Slam win this year thus far, have only added fuel to the "Fed is over" debates.

Now, with the US Open in full swing, the big question is whether Federer can really capture a 17th win to increase his record, or if he'll finish the year without a Slam for the first time since 2002. His summer series play hasn't been promising. Though he lasted longer than his Top 4 rivals Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in Montreal, he still went out in the third round to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga--the same man who knocked him out in the quarters at Wimbledon. "Jo played an excellent third set," Federer said after the loss. "The first two sets were tighter. I should maybe have won the first one, I had some opportunities."

Truer words were never spoken. This has been the trouble with Roger's game of late, even when he wins a match. There have been many sets he lost that he should have won, and sets he's won that he should have won much sooner. Even his stellar victory over Djokovic at the French Open had its squeaker moments, when it looked like Federer might crumble. As beautiful as he still looks on the court, these days the Swiss champion seems to have trouble capitalizing on his leads. It's heartbreaking to watch him turn a 40-0 game into a deuce duel, or heaven forbid, a loss.

At the Cincinnati (Western & Southern) Open, the song was the same, though he made it up to the quarterfinals this time. His sparring with Juan Martin Del Potro in the opening round had some genuine Federer moments, with hardcore strong volleys and that famous Fed forehand in full effect. Things started to falter later in the tournament, however. I saw Fed at the public practice session before his match with Tomas Berdych, and he looked tired and frustrated. After a half hour of warm-up that included too many bad serves and shots into the net, Federer signed a few autographs and bailed. It was a far cry from the more confident, relaxed practice I'd seen earlier in the tournament.

Federer has a double-edged problem now with his competitors. From Top 10 players to young upstarts, everyone wants to try to beat Federer, and now there's the added hope that they can actually do it. Players kill themselves to throw everything in their power at him, and when you have to play do-or-die matches in a tournament from Day 1, it can take its toll. Djokovic felt that at the Cincinnati Open, when Gael Monfils nearly exploded his own heart in an effort to break Djoko's streak--and he nearly succeeded. The truth is that from a distance, those of us not under the actual pressure can see the truth--Federer is still a much better player than most of his opponents. At the moment, he is beating himself rather than losing to his challengers.

What was disheartening at the Cincy Open was that there was the appearance that the world's favorite winner wasn't even trying. He gives the impression that he'd rather lose pretty than win ugly--or horror of horrors, lose ugly. His hair looks fantastic, he barely breaks a sweat, and he rarely grunts with effort or loses his balance. When he wins, those qualities make him seem superhuman. When he loses, it makes him look lazy. Sometimes it almost seems as if his arrogance is offended by having to play such lowly players--and that he can't be bothered to expend any effort to beat them.

The question that nags, however, is what if he really was trying? The way that Federer makes everything look so effortless may sometimes mask the fact that he's working his butt off to make the shots and his arm simply isn't holding up. The commentators on the US Open live feed during the match with Giraldo noted that Roger had recently been watching footage of his old games and realized his play had changed--without his making a conscious effort to change it. The fact that he's trying to evaluate his skills, and what's going wrong, is a positive sign for future play.

This is a big step forward for the stubborn Federer, who often repeats the mantra that he's healthy and playing well, all the while his unforced errors keep climbing. In his post-Cincy-Open press conference, he seemed less defensive and more honest on where he needed to be. "Yeah, I've got to do better. Very simple," he stated after a line of hard questions. "But all in all I feel okay. I feel better now than I did in Montreal where it wasn't a very good match against Tsonga."

Federer has to feel even better today as he ramped up his play and tested out some new strategies in the opening round of the US Open. If he follows his current pattern of gradually improving, he should at least hit the semi-final rounds, where he'll potentially run into Djokovic. With Djokovic's and Nadal's recent injuries, and the Spaniard's uneven play in the US Open series, Federer has as good a chance as anyone to steal the title from the projected winner.

Even if Federer doesn't nab a Slam win this year, his dedication to finding out what works and honing his considerable skills for the current state of the game bodes well for good things in 2012. "[My age] hasn't changed anything," Federer insists. "I'm still as professional. I'm still as hungry. Everything's still completely normal. It's just a number that's changed. I'm ready to go."

Allez, Roger! Your fans are hungry for another win, too.

Check out: US Open: Roger Federer Tunes Up His Game

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