Romney Relief: Perry's First Poll Without Double-Digit Lead Released

ANALYSIS | Texas governor Rick Perry jumped into the lead as the preferred Republican candidate for the 2012 GOP nomination shortly following his announcement that he was running for president. The hard-charging Texan swiftly amassed four national polls that indicated he had a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor (which happened to be the former poll frontrunner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney). But such dominance has reached an end, at least for the time being. A Quinnipiac Poll released this week, although reflecting that Perry remained the preferred candidate, showed that the Republican race might be drawing a bit closer.

According to the latest poll, Perry garnered 24 percent of the Republican and Republican-leaning independent registered voters responding to their survey. Romney posted 18 percent. That six-point deficit is undoubtedly seen by the Romney camp as far more acceptable than the 10 points by which the ex-governor trailed in the Gallup Poll or the 13 points by which he lagged in the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. And given that the margin of error for the Quinnipiac University Polling survey was +/-1.9 percent, the numbers do not seem quite as dauntingly separated.

The relative close proximity in comparison with the other poll results may be in part due to the longevity of the Quinnipiac survey, which was conducted over a twelve-day period (the next-longest, Gallup, took five days to complete) and could encompass both the excitement engendered by Perry's initial entrance and the response to the negative press and opposition research released by both Republicans and Democrats since his declaration to run. Romney's numbers, which have shown a remarkable propensity for rarely rising above 21 percent regardless of which organization was doing the polling in the past 18 months, reflect relatively the same numbers with two of the polls, and four points higher than the remaining two.

Even though trailing, the poll's results are undoubtedly welcome news to Romney's campaign.

Undeclared and possible Republican candidate Sarah Palin polled 11 percent support, with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) garnering 10 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul polling 9 percent. All were relatively comparable to the results in other major polls.

Noted Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, "Being the new kid on the block has benefitted Perry. But with prominence comes scrutiny and both his Republican competitors and the Democrats are doing their best to convince voters he's not Mr. Wonderful. The next few months will be a race between Perry and his Republican and Democratic opponents to define him for the vast majority of the American people."

And that target population has already been hit with plenty of negative media about Perry -- and not just from Democrats and liberals. A former economic advisor to President Reagan labeled him an "idiot" on matters concerning the Federal Reserve. An article from Politico took a look at Perry's career and his positions and asked the question, "Is Rick Perry Dumb?"

With such help, Romney might make even more headway in future polling against the Texas governor. But then, Perry has never lost an election, which speaks of political shrewdness and the ability to adapt.