Romney, Santorum Surges in South Carolina Set Up Two-Man Race

COMMENTARY | Two recent polls taken in South Carolina have some good news for Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney, and not so good news for Newt Gingrich, provided that one thinks that the latter is still actually running for president.

A Rasmussen poll has Romney at 27 percent, Santorum at 24 percent, and Gingrich at 18 percent. A Time/CNN poll had Romney far ahead at 37 percent with Santorum at 19 percent and Gingrich 18 percent. Both polls suggest that Santorum is surging, while Gingrich is declining. Ron Paul is in the low single digits and Rick Perry is in the single digits.

Before the Iowa Caucus, polling in South Carolina showed that Gingrich was far ahead of the pack. But a relentless campaign of negative ads plus a poor showing in Iowa have reversed the former House Speaker's fortunes.

Barring any unexpected development -- which this campaign cycle has been filled with -- a two-man race between Romney and Santorum seems to be developing. If Perry does not improve his poll standing, he is likely out of the race after South Carolina. Gingrich will also have decisions to make should he not do well in South Carolina. While Paul will stay in from sheer cussedness, he is not likely to be a factor in the later contests.

If Santorum does well in South Carolina, the imperative for conservatives to rally around him as the not-Romney candidate will become overwhelming. He therefore stands a good chance of winning the nomination on the theory that Romney, whose sole appeal is his alleged electability and his willingness to at least campaign like a conservative, has not been able to rise above about a quarter of the vote.

Romney has been campaigning relentlessly as a born-again conservative, but also tacitly suggesting that he is the one man with the ability to unseat President Obama. That last quality is important for people who cast their votes strategically and can convince themselves that Romney is "conservative enough." Thus far Romney has not been able to seal that deal.

If, as expected, Perry drops out, Gingrich continues to fade, and Paul cannot get much above low double digits, Romney will have to direct his full attention against Santorum. If Romney can't make the case for his own candidacy, he will try to make the case against Santorum's. The spectacle is likely to be ugly indeed.

Sources: Election 2012: South Carolina Republican Primary, Rasmussen Poll, Jan 6, 2011

CNN/Time Poll: Romney and Santorum soar in South Carolina, CNN, Jan 6, 2011