Ron Paul Staying Alive in New Hampshire

In a recent poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports (rasmussenreports.com), GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul tallied 11% among New Hampshire voters, which was good for third among the Republican hopefuls. This is by far the best showing he has had yet. The spike in support for Dr. Paul may be partly due to his modestly strong finish in the Iowa caucuses last week, where he ended up with 6% of votes cast. It may also be due in part to his (arguably) effective performance in Saturday night's debate in New Hampshire.

Paul's campaign has generated an enormous amount of buzz, especially among young people. His name is constantly among the most searched items on Yahoo, Google, and even here on Associated Content. His name and likeness are all over YouTube and MySpace and Facebook. He has had two wildly successful fundraising days, and is not significantly behind the GOP heavyweights in overall funds.

And yet, you never hear about him on TV or on the radio. He has been virtually ignored by the press. He is considered by the media to be a fringe candidate with no chance of winning the nomination. He has been excluded from some debates and often, especially early in the campaign season, did not show up in polls. His huge money intakes got only token coverage despite their historical significance.

His recent surge in New Hampshire might finally force the media to pay attention to him. His army of supporters has been shouting about him at the top of their lungs for months now, and they may finally get their voices heard. If Dr. Paul can finish in the top 3 among Republicans in this Tuesday's primary, he will almost certainly get some badly needed attention.

A top three finish would also bring some unwanted attention, however. To this point, his opponents in the primaries, and the Republican establishment itself, has agreed with the press that Paul will not cause any serious problems for them. Because of that, they have not attacked him and have largely pretended he wasn't there. But a strong showing in New Hampshire will likely change that. If the powers that be in the GOP turn their attention to him, and begin to work against him, he will be up against forces that he has not yet had to face. But if his speeches to this point are any indication, then he won't be deterred a bit.

If he can withstand the onslaught that will surely greet him after a top-three finish in New Hampshire, and he can follow that up with strong showings in South Carolina and Michigan, then he will likely position himself as the alternative candidate to the GOP frontrunner at that point. And, although that will not precipitously increase his chances of winning the nomination, it will provide a great deal of exposure for his campaign and his ideas. That would increase his chances is he chooses to run as an Independent, which many expect him to do, despite his own indications that he will not.

As an Independent, he could generate significant support, especially if the Republican candidate, such as Rudy Giuliani, is seen as too moderate for some conservative voters.

Perhaps the ground swell of support that has been building for Dr. Paul is finally getting somewhere. We shall find out on Tuesday.