Ron Paul Would Not Do Well as a Third-Party Candidate

COMMENTARY | George Will, the venerable Washington Post columnist and fixture as the lone conservative voice on ABC's "This Week" posits what he suggests is a nightmare scenario, a Ron Paul third party candidacy.

Will gives a pretty interesting rundown as to how various state contests might shake out if Ron Paul were to run. He arrives at the conclusion that a Paul third party candidacy would lead to a Barack Obama re-election, something that one would think that the libertarian Paul would not favor.

Of course, Paul's purpose might be less to win than to exact revenge on the Republican Party and the American people for not giving him what is his due, the presidency. If that is what he wants, a third party run might well fit the bill.

Whether one thinks Will is right depends on how one thinks a Paul third party run would work. Would it be like Ross Perot's runs in 1992 and 1996? In the first instance, Perot handed the election to Bill Clinton out of a fit of pique with the Bush family and an inflated sense of his own self-worth.

On the other hand, Paul 2012 could be more like John Anderson 1980, Ralph Nader 2000, or-for that matter-Ron Paul 1988. In neither or these cases was a third party run decisive in swinging the election to one major party candidate or another. According to the New York Times, Paul got just 431,499 votes or .47 percent of the total running as a Libertarian in 1988.

It can be argued that Paul would do much better if he were to have another go in 2012. Maybe, but conditions would be different in 2012 than in 1992 or 1996. Perot was able to benefit from flaws in the candidates of both parties in the years he ran. Bill Clinton lacked character. George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996 lacked ideas. In 2012, the disdain is thoroughly directed at President Obama, for a bad economy, persistent wars in the Middle East, and for an off-putting demeanor. A vote for Paul next year would be a vote for Obama. And if, as expected, the 2012 election will be about whether or not to fire the president, Paul will not do well.

Sources: Ron Paul, spoiler? George Will, The Washington Post, Dec 11, 2011

1988 VOTE: THE FINAL WORD, The New York Times, Dec 29, 1988