Rudy Giuliani:: Does "America's Mayor" Have a Chance?

While it's far too early to tell how the presidential nominations will shake out, Rudy Giuliani has been extremely visible in 2007. His stances on social issues make him attractive to more liberal Republicans and to moderate Democrats as well.

After his visit to California in mid-March, 2007, polls are showing him drawing 35-40% of the Republican votes for the nomination, his share having risen sharply over the previous few months. It is impossible to say yet whether his rapid rise will be sustainable over the long run to the nomination.

It's difficult to beat "America's Mayor" in terms of recognition. Giuliani has been in the news consistently for several years and, after 9-11, has become a household name.

While Giuliani's being pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control may be anathema to conservative Republicans, his stance is playing very well with moderates from both major parties. Add to this his belief in reducing taxes and government in general, and some Libertarians are happy to see a feasible candidate emerge who is both fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

Giuliani is not a Libertarian, regardless of the many times he's been labeled as such. He opposes many of their closest-held beliefs. He is, however, the closest thing to a viable (read: one who can win the election) Libertarian candidate yet to be seen.

There are serious concerns among Giuliani's supporters, however, about his personal history. Many fear that he won't be able to win the nomination because even a low-key smear campaign will remind people of his unfaithfulness and divorces. Since moderate party members tend not to vote in primaries, it is very possible that the more conservative Republicans who do vote will choose a less notorious candidate.

This may be a strategy mistake. If the goal of the Republican party is to keep one of their own in the White House, it's hard to see how another candidate is going to be able to accomplish it. None of the candidates, of those so far declared, is as recognizable or as charismatic as Giuliani, nor are they getting as much press. They are certainly polling far behind him.

Giuliani will likely, if nominated, be running against either Hillary Clinton - the woman many love to hate - or Barack Obama - a relative unknown. Such opponents can only help his numbers at the polls, and more conservative Republicans will not be able to draw moderate Democrats as well as Rudy Giuliani.