Sadr and the "Cease Fire"

Reports surfaced over the weekend indicating that Iraqi cleric Moqtada al Sadr "clarified" his threat of open war by saying that his cease fire with the Maliki government was still in effect and that the members of his Mehdi Army militia would only attack U.S.-forces. How exactly he plans to execute this plan is somewhat of a mystery to this observer.

The problem is really quite simple to see. Iraqi Security Forces, with U.S. assistance, are continuing to target elements of the Mehdi Army in the Sadr City section of Baghdad, with heavy fighting reported over the weekend. How exactly is Sadr going to refrain from attacking Iraqi forces when those forces are increasingly mixed with U.S. units? Is Sadr going to restrain himself from responding with force if the Iraqi government sends its forces after his foot soldiers? Given the fact that U.S. and Iraqi forces are operating together and not independently of one another, the notion that Mehdi Army members will be able to execute Sadr's orders is remote at best.

The reality is that this guy has been a thorn in the side of the U.S. since the invasion in 2003. I remember sitting in a TOC (Tactical Operations Center) at a base just outside Fallujah in the summer of that year discussing with other officers the problems Sadr was going to cause us. Our conclusion then was that something needed to be done about him. Now, "doing something" is nearly impossible given his continually rising popularity and the strength of his militia.

At this point I would argue that if we withdraw from Iraq too quickly, that is before the government in Baghdad is capable of defending itself from both internal and external threats, the likelihood of another dictator emerging from the chaos that would ensue is very real, and that new strongman could very well be Moqtada al Sadr. The cleric is not only known for opposing U.S. forces and for subverting the Maliki government. He also has taken a page from the playbook of the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah, who use the provision of basic services that the government is unable or unwilling to provide in order to gain "street credit" with the population.

Sadr has been busily positioning himself as the champion of the people, ostensibly looking out for their interests while standing up to the "occupier" and the corrupt central government. Really, though, he has been doing nothing more than positioning himself to be the next dictator of Iraq if the United States loses its will, withdraws, and leaves a power vacuum for Sadr to make his move.