Sadr's Cease Fire Key to Iraq's Stability

Reports have surfaced indicating that radical Iraqi Shia cleric and Mehdi Army militia leader Muqtada Al Sadr has instructed his fighters to maintain their cease fire with U.S. and Iraqi forces. Al Sadr first launched the cease fire last summer as part of a six month effort to consolidate power and increase his political standing.

News of the continuing cease fire comes at a time when there is a lot of speculation about Mehdi Army fighters renewing their attacks on coalition and Iraqi military troops and police forces. Much of the decrease in violence in Iraq since last Fall has been attributed to the cessation of attacks by Sadr's militia. According to the Terrorism Knowledge Base, the size of the Mehdi Army is estimated at around a few thousand. The militia is believed to be responsible for attacks against not only American and Iraqi forces, but for attacks that stoked sectarian rivalries as well.

If the level of violence in Iraq is to continue to decline, Sadr's cooperation with the Iraqi government and with U.S. military forces will be essential. To integrate Sadr and his forces into the Iraqi political process, some argue that the central government in Baghdad and the U.S.-led coalition should take advantage of the cease fire to work with the cleric and his top leaders. A new report from the International Crisis Group, an independent organization that works to resolve and prevent violent conflict around the world, argues that the cease fire represents a political opportunity that must not be missed, and that severe pressure on the Mehdi Army could spark a renewal of the militia's attacks on military forces and civilians. Part of the burden lies with Sadr, as well, and the International Crisis Group says he should maintain his cease fire while laying out his political agenda so that he and his forces can be fully incorporated into the Iraqi government.

An argument can be made, according to some, that he has in fact been working toward that goal. Mohamad Bazzi, the Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow for the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent Washington think tank, wrote late last month that Sadr has remade himself into a statesman. In addition, Bazzi says, Sadr's pursuit of ayatollah status will, if achieved, increase his power and authority within Iraqi society.

U.S. forces have been trying to figure out how to deal with Sadr and his militia since shortly after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Sadr's most serious confrontation with U.S. forces came in an intense battle in the holy city of Najaf, in 2004.

Sources: TKB, ICG, CFR