Same Sex Marriage and Election 2008

The California State Supreme Court has ruled that California's law prohibiting same sex marriage is discriminatory and is therefore unconstitutional. This ruling resolves a suit brought by the city of San Francisco which had defied the state law. California thus joins Massachusetts as one of the only states in the Union to allow same sex marriage. Several other states allow same sex couples to enter into civil unions that grant many of the same legal rights of marriage, including joint property and inheritance. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will likely not seek an amendment to the California state constitution to overturn the ruling.

Gay rights activists and civil libertarians will doubtless applaud the ruling. Social conservatives, on the other hand, will be outraged that the most populous state in the Union now allows a marriage arrangement that they find anathema, mainly for moral and religious reasons.

The ruling may prove to be a pyrrhic victory for the left, however, for a variety of reasons.

Liberal politicians, at least running for President, have tended to avoid the gay marriage issue like a live hand grenade. An examination of the campaign websites of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has turned up no mention of the same sex marriage issue. John McCain has opposed same sex marriage in principle but has opposed a federal ban on it for reasons of federalism. McCain has also called for appointing judges that will persevere the traditional (i.e. one man, one woman) family.

Now, thanks to the California Supreme, the candidates will likely have to take a stand on the same sex marriage issue. Will Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama risk alienating gay Americans and their supporters by opposing the California Supreme Court ruling? Or will they risk alienating almost everyone else by supporting it.

John McCain is in a slightly more nuanced position. He will deplore the California State Supreme Court ruling while at the same time opposing the inevitable effort to try to overturn the ruling with a federal ban on same sex marriage. McCain's likely stance will befuddle and annoy social conservatives.

The place where same sex marriage will galvanize social conservatives like no other issue since legal abortion is in down ballot races. Republicans, somewhat demoralized since losing three special elections in a row, now have a unifying issue to run on. Americans, while possibly persuadable on civil unions, are against legal same sex marriage by wide margins in most polls. Many will also find galling that the decision to lift the ban on same sex marriage was accomplished by judicial fiat and not through the political and legislative process.

The same sex marriage issue, now brought to the fore, has the potential of bringing out social conservatives to the polls in large numbers. That could turn what many believe will be a Democratic election year into something else entirely.

Sources: California Supreme Court Overturns Gay Marriage Ban, AFP, May 15th, 2008
McCain: Same Sex Marriage Ban "UnRepublican, Ed Henry and Craig Broffman, CNN, July 14th, 2004
Gay Civil Unions Favored, Polls Show, MSNBC, March 12th, 2004