San Diego Padres 2010 Draft Analysis: Karsten Whitson

There was very little surprise in the Padres' selection in this year's Baseball Draft. The ownership did little to disguise their intentions and even announced that they would look to the high school players. This is due to two factors. The first is that there is a shortage of talent at the college level right now with much of the talent still having remaining time in school. The second, and biggest, reason for this is the fact that high school kids can usually be signed for a much lower price tag. The fact that they went for a pitcher is also not surprising. The new ownership wants to return to the pitching strong philosophy. With a park like Petco and one of the lowest payrolls in the game there is really no other option than to have a strong armed staff. All of these factors culminated in the selection of Whitson for their first pick. With the argument of who is better between Whitson and Pirates first pick Jameson Tallion, one of these two would end up in Sunny San Diego. With Pirates picking first, they made the choice extremely easy for Jed Hoyer. So, who is Karsten Whitson? Several Padre Fans are asking the same question. Unless you keep up with Florida's high school circuit, you have probably heard little about this fire-baller. Here is a look at his stats and some of the things that he might be able to do with for the team.

Karsten Whitson is a high school player from Chipley High School in Chipley, Florida (east of Pensacola and due north of Panama City). It was here that he made knees buckle with a crippling fast ball. Throwing in the low to mid 90's, this kid can power the ball into the zone with a look that is more major league than high school. With a Padres staff that is still stinging from the loss of Jake Peavy, Whitson will fit right in here. This 6-4, 190 lb. righty fanned 123 batters in only 55 innings of work. It is easy to see why he has appeal for the Padres, but the real question is, what role will he play for the Friars? It is yet to be discovered whether he can maintain that velocity over 100 plus pitches every five days. Chances are he may start in relief until he can get his counts up. If he can maintain that power and add a pitch or two to his repertoire, he could be the next staff ace. This is to say the Friars do to Latos what they did to Peavy. If he is able to become a starter, a future staff of Latos, LeBlanc, and Whitson could be a combo that will crush the NL West lineups. His heater is not his only pitch. For a high school pitcher, it is very rare to get any movement and curves are usually off limits at this level, but Whitson has a dynamic slider that has been described by scouts as one of the best in high school. He also has a change-up, but it is not that great of a pitch as of yet. The fact that he can throw it and rely on it to occasionally get the out speaks volumes about his confidence and the future of his arsenal. With a three pitch stash straight out of high school, the pitching coaches along the way will easily be able to refine the change and add at least two more pitches. By the time he breaks into the Bigs, he will easily have four or five choices in his pitch selection that will all look like gold. The fast ball will likely be his bread and butter, and if he can maintain the velocity through six or more innings, it won't be long until he is a household name.

With all this talent and still a very young player, many people wonder when they can see him in the blue on sand in Petco. That will really rely upon him. Whitson has left an option open to get a full ride from Florida State. This will easily allow him to opt out of signing with San Diego and keep him near to home. This will also allow him the chance to re-enter the draft later and possibly play for a more local team. If he is willing to play for a SoCal team, it is quite possible to see him in a Friar's uniform well before he can legally drink (I wonder if they will squirt him with milk if they get a playoff berth?). The real question is whether he can be a starter or not. If he can handle the workload, it is a fairly open road to the Majors and he can make the jump from Lake Elsinore or San Antonio. If he will work mostly in relief, it is possible for him to be stuck in the minors for a while since the Pads have several relievers that are more than capable of playing in the Show. Garland and Correia both are only here for a year or two more. If this kid can go to Low A and show the Pads that he can go for the long run, he may be able to start for Lake Elsinore next year and San Antonio the following with a June 2012 call up.

There is going to be a lot of speculation about Whitson until a couple goals are met. The first thing the Padres will need to do is sign this young phenom. Whitson has said that he really wants to go to the majors, but he still has Florida on the hook if the deal falls through. The Padres will need to pony up to sign him or he may go to college and try again later. The fact that the Padres have not had much success with their past first picks may not bode well for Whitson. For several years in a row, the Pad's first pick has gone bust and never made it to the minors. They have made some blockbuster deals with their first pick and lost out on many of them. This may make them a little gun shy in offering that huge bonus. The fact that there is a new regime in town may be in Whitson's favor and hopefully they can break the first round draft curse they have been in for many years. The other factor is what he does in low A if the Friars do sign him. If he can continue to dominate there and can handle 100+ pitches per game, he will be put on the fast track to the Bigs. If he can handle the starting role, it will be an amazing 2012 season for the Friars and their pitching will be even better than it is now. Like most Padres fans, I am just hoping that he is not a Matt Bush repeat.

Sources:

Padres Take Prep Righty Whitson at No. 9

Chipley's Whitson Awaits a Call in Today's MLB Draft

Righty Whitson Happy to go to Padres