Sarah Palin is Headed for Iowa, 2012 Caucuses a Short 18 Months Away

With the first-in-the-nation 2012 caucuses a mere 18 months away, Sarah Palin is headed for Iowa to speak before the Iowa Republican Party Ronald Reagan Dinner, which raises money for the state party.

It is a sign not only of how long the presidential campaign season has become but also how eager the Republicans are to begin the process of retiring President Obama that talk is already being heard about who is up and who is down in Iowa among potential GOP candidates.

Palin is relatively late in the process of going to Iowa, making herself known to the voters, and schmoozing with the state's Republican movers and shakers. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been visiting Iowa since last November, lining up supporters. Newt Gingrich makes it a point to visit the Iowa State Fair every year, and most people do not believe it is just for the deep-fried food.

Nevertheless, Sarah Palin has used her most powerful Facebook Page in cyberspace to endorse Iowa candidates and has contributed money. Speaking before the Reagan Dinner would seem to be just another step in positioning herself as a contender in Iowa.

Palin does enjoy great popularity in Iowa, with a 58 percent favorability rating. She was able to draw enthusiastic crowds in that state during the 2008 election, even though Iowa went to Barack Obama in the Presidential election.

The Iowa Caucus has had mixed results in helping to determine who the eventual party nominee is. In 2008, Obama, by winning a plurality, catapulted himself from a minor candidate to one in the top tier. The Republican winner was Mike Huckabee, with the eventual nominee, John McCain, getting only 13 percent.

The Iowa Caucus would be only the first step in a long, arduous process of getting the nomination. In the 2008 cycle, the winners of the next contest, the New Hampshire Primary, were Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton. New Hampshire has a certain reputation for stubborn independence and for humbling candidates who think they are on a roll coming out of Iowa.

A possible Palin strategy would be to win in Iowa, do not get beaten too badly in New Hampshire, and then start to clean up in conservative South Carolina. Sarah Palin has already campaigned in South Carolina for gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, one of her famous "Mama Grizzlies."

In the meantime, the 2010 midterm elections still have to be lost and won. But rest assured, the moment the last polls close in November, the 2012 campaign begins in earnest.

Source: Sarah Palin's plans mark change in posture toward Iowa, Tom Beaumont, Des Moines Register, August 31st, 2010