Scott Brown Ahead by One, According to PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling now puts Republican Scott Brown one point ahead of Democrat Martha Coakley in the special election in Massachusetts at 48 to 47 percent of the vote. The news is a preliminary in what could be an 10 point earthquake.

Public Policy Polling lists three factors in Scott Brown's astonishing surge:

"As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

"Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

"Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed."

There seems to be another factor in play as well, Up until recently, Martha Coakley hardly campaigned at all, preferring to coast to election on the fact of Democratic strength in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, as William Jacobson reports, the Scott Brown Campaign is a well oiled, professional machine driven by enthusiasm and energy.

As of this writing there is but nine days to go in the special election campaign and it appears that Scott Brown has the wind at his back. Somewhat belatedly Martha Coakley has come to realize that she might actually have to campaign for the Senate seat. Her first ads have started to air and she has started to make speeches and meet with voters. Some speculation exists that Vice President Biden or even President Obama himself will be dispatched to Massachusetts to stomp for Coakley.

But the question is, does Martha Coakley have time to catch up to Scott Brown? Certainly she could still win. Massachusetts has a history of conservative candidates surging in campaigns, only to fade in the stretch. It all depends on whether Massachusetts voters now committed to pulling the lever for Scott Brown are persuadable to switching to Coakley or whether their decision has been locked in.

While disdain for both political parties in on the rise, disgust with Democrats is in orbit, even in Massachusetts. The Democrats are the party in power and things are a mess, bigger than they were when Barack Obama was sworn into office almost a year ago. People are in the mood to punish politicians, whom they see as uncaring, unresponsive, and corrupt. Sending the 41^st vote against health care reform in Teddy Kennedy's seat would seem to fit that bill nicely.

Sources: Toss-Up in Massachusetts, Tom Jenson, Public Policy Polling, January 9th, 2010

Brown HQ Report Two, William Jacobson, Legal Insurrection, January 9th, 2010