Scott Brown Has Killed Health Care Reform

One of the great ironies of Scott Brown's victory in the special election for the senate in Massachusetts is that in turning Teddy Kennedy's seat into the People's seat, Scott Brown also drove a stake into health care reform.

That Teddy Kennedy's dream of a socialized health care system be destroyed in his own beloved Massachusetts would seem to be so unlikely as to not be credible in fiction. But there it happened, in real life, in front of the eyes of the world. Scott Brown campaigned on being the 41st vote against health care reform and won by a convincing five points over his Democratic opponent in what was once the bluest of blue states.

Machinations by President Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress seem to be falling apart even before they come to fruition.

It is said that the health care reform could be rammed through while Massachusetts officials delayed Scott Brown's certification as a senator as long as possible. But several Senate Democrats such as Jim Webb of Virginia have already said that there should be no votes on health care reform until Scott Brown is seated as a senator.

What about ramming through the senate version of health care reform in the house with a promise to fix things later? That option too seems to be a nonstarter. Many House Democrats are angry at either the abortion measures in the senate bill or the lack of a public option. Besides, many House Democrats are bailing on the idea because they don't think that the resulting law could ever be fixed to their satisfaction.

Then there is the option of trying to pass health care reform through reconciliation, which requires only 51 votes in the Senate. For that to happen, the measure has to go back to committee, have everything but the budget (tax and spending parts) stripped from the bill and then passed in both houses of Congress. Again a dubious proposition at best.

Of course President Obama and the Congressional Democrats can always make another run at some senate moderate such as Olympia Snowe. But these kinds of special deals, such as the Louisiana Purchase that got Mary Landrieu's vote or the Cornhusker Kickback that got Ben Nelson's vote have become so toxic that not even a Republican moderate is going to touch one of those anytime soon.

President Obama and the Congressional Democrats could go back to the drawing board and try to craft a more centrist bill, incorporating some Republican ideas like malpractice reform. But it would seem that too much political capital has been spent in the health care reform effort. The balancing act to get enough Republicans on board to balance out the defections of Democratic liberals is likely too difficult to muster.

Besides, the people are saying that the government should turn its full attention to the continuing economic crisis. Unemployment is still at 10 percent, 17 percent if one counts discouraged workers. No more messing with health care reform. That too has become toxic.

Health care reform is likely dead, possibly for a generation. Scott Brown did that by winning in Massachusetts.

Sources: On to Plan C, Ben Smith, Politico, January 19th, 2010

The fallout: Democrats rethinking health care bill, Carrie Budoff Brown & Patrick O'Connor, Politico, January 19th, 2010