Season 9 American Idol Winner Prediction

Season 9 is down to the top 20, and the judges have dubbed the talent the best ever. Of course they're all great singers to have made it this far, but only one can take home the title of "American Idol". Using the past winners as guidelines for what it takes, let's analyze the top 20 contestants for the most likely American Idol 9 winner.

Here are the top 20 contestants:
Aaron Kelly
Alex Lambert
Andrew Garcia
Casey James
Crystal Bowersox
Didi Benami
Haeley Vaughn
Jermaine Sellers
John Park
Katelyn Epperly
Katie Stevens
Lacey Brown
Lee Dewyze
Lilly Scott
Michael Lynche
Michelle Delamor
Paige Miles
Siobhan Magnus
Tim Urban
Todrick Hall

What it Takes
The three most important characteristics of Idol winners have been a substantial fan base, judge support and ability to perform different styles. Looking at past Idol winners - Kelly Clarkson, Ruben Studdard, Fantasia Barrino, Carrie Underwood, Taylor Hicks, Jordin Sparks, David Cook and Kris Allen - they all had these 3 things going for them.

Which of the top 20 fit these categories?

Fan Base
In order to get through, contestants have to have support from fans. To get this, they need to be different enough from other contestants to not have to split voters. The more contestants in the voter split, the more likely they'll be voted off.
Similarities between the top 20 are becoming more evident.

Fan Splits for the Guys
Mainstream/pop boys include Aaron Kelly, Alex Lambert, Tim Urban and Lee Dewyze. The more soul-oriented boys competing against each other include Jermaine Sellers, John Park and Todrick Hall.

Fan Splits for the Girls
The mainstream/pop girls include Katelyn Epperly, Katie Stevens, Lacey Brown, Didi Benami and Siobhan Magnus. Soul-oriented girls are Michelle Delamo and Paige Miles.

Who's Left?
Lilly Scott - White-blonde indigo child.
Michael Lynche - R&B, bodyguard-sized teddy bear.
Andrew Garcia - Hip, creative guitar player.
Casey James - female favorite for his looks.
Crystal Bowersox - dreadlocks, harmonicas and trend-avoiding hippy.
Haeley Vaughn - a shockingly happy country singer.

Judges Treatment
Of the 6 contestants that pass the first criteria, which ones do the judges like?
Lilly is a creative, different wonder that wins praise during every performance.
Michael gets praise for his voice, not so great at creativity... but overall, positive reviews.
Andrew is still a favorite for his rendition of Paula Abdul's "Straight Up". They still call him "genius".
Casey James is Kara's eye candy. The judges all love his voice as well.
While Simon criticized Crystal's performance in week 1 only because of her song choice, he still expressed his pleasure with her being there. The other judges also complimented her.
Haeley is the only one of the 6 that has lost favor with the judges, although Simon seems to be harshest with her.

Mainstream Capabilities
Assuming all 6 of these contestants can stay in the judges' good graces, how are they at other styles? Can they do mainstream along with their preferred style?
Lilly - If she picks the right songs, yes. She'd have to choose wisely to go with her style, but she could do it.
Michael - Absolutely. He seems to have a voice that would carry over between genres easily.
Andrew - Yes. He can do his guitar thing, but he also has an image that seems to carry over between styles.
Casey - Most likely. He seems more slow/country than pop hits, but he may be able to pull it off if he puts enough effort in. He probably couldn't take on a fast-paced song, though.
Crystal - Probably not. Her voice could carry it. The problem lies in her image. She's already had her teeth whitened. If she would comb out her dreadlocks, she'd win over a lot more confidence in the pop arena at least.
Haeley - No. She is a country girl. She has so much twang that she couldn't hide it in a pop or rock song, and it would be awful.

Idol Winner?
Judging by these 3 criteria, Lilly Scott will be the last female simply due to her ability to sing a variety of styles. Between Michael and Andrew, Andrew beats him out in the judge treatment. Casey's going to lose when they switch styles to anything exciting.
Between Lilly Scott and Michael Garcia is anyone's call. Idol winners are split exactly based on sex, and all ages have won (from Jordin Sparks at 17 to Taylor Hicks at 29). Judges think they're both genius, and they have perfect voices and growing fan bases.