Separation Sunday - How to Dominate Fantasy Football

Okay, the season has started, we're up to Week Four, and there are plenty of surprises. It would be very easy for a team that seemed to have a good draft to be 0-3, and a team that looked bad going into the season to be 3-0. The draft and the first three games are not life or death. In college football, Week Three was "Separation Saturday," when the real contenders emerge through dominating performances. In the NFL it is "Separation Sunday." It is in fantasy football as well, for the next couple of weeks; now is the time to make your move, to separate yourself from the rest or get back in it before others do.

There are always a handful of undrafted free agents who turn out to be major fantasy contributors. There are also a handful of players who owners give up on after the first three weeks and cut them from their team. You can get big-time players for cheap because they didn't produce in the first three weeks. You can trade over-performers before they settle back into mediocrity. Now is the time to buy low and sell high and set yourself up for the fantasy playoffs and championship. This is when the championship is often won, in the early weeks, building the foundation, and taking advantage of the other owners in your league.

In order to do so you have to take chances. They should be educated ones, but it's always a risk. The following is a list of moves that could pay major dividends for your championship hopes.

Quarterbacks

Pick up Rex Grossman and/or Chad Pennington

By now everyone know about these two. They were most likely undrafted. Pennington is coming off major arm surgery and has been unable to stay healthy for an entire season throughout his career. He also plays for the lowly New York Jets. Grossman is the leader of a perennially bad Chicago Bears offense that tends to run the ball and rely on great defense. That has, in the past, resulted in very low output from the quarterback.

However, both have put up huge numbers so far. Pennington is ranked in the top five in most fantasy football quarterbacks so far, as is Grossman. Pennington even did it against a solid New England Patriots defense.

So, pick them up if you still can. They are probably gone already; someone surely picked them up by now. But if not, get them. They offer several things: a reliable replacement for your starting quarterback when he has a bye, trade bait, and injury insurance. And even if you can't get another owner to bite on a trade for one of them, if they continue to produce, you could consider trading your starting quarterback and using Pennington or Grossman as your starter. It's all about value in fantasy football, and you have to find ways to maximize it. Even David Carr and Alex Smith are worth looking at as potential starters, against the right defensive matchup.

Consider the Kurt Warner/Matt Leinert combo

You have to consider Kurt Warner as a top five fantasy QB. He has tons of weapons, plays a soft schedule, and will likely have to keep throwing to win games. He put up huge numbers last year, while he was healthy. That is the downside to owning him; he's an injury risk. But if you consider that Matt Leinert, a number one draft choice of the Arizona Cardinals this year, is behind him, all you have to do is stash Leinert on your bench and you should have 250 yards and 2 touchdowns from your QB the rest of the way, at minimum. Warner is typically considered seventh to tenth when it comes to QB, so if you can trade down, say a Tom Brady or a Carson Palmer, get Warner and an upgrade at running back or receiver in a package deal, jump on it. If he stays healthy, I expect that Warner finishes the season with better fantasy numbers than most of the quarterback ranked above him, aside from maybe Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb. And maybe Matt Hasselback. Warner has two of the top receivers in the game and Edgerrin James at his disposal. He can hardly go wrong. Look into a trade for him. But make sure you have Leinert if you do, in case Warner gets hurt or if the Cardinals get antsy to try their franchise quarterback (Leinert). Either way, together, you should get very good QB production.

Trade Carson Palmer

If you can get a player of first or second round value for Palmer, do it. Of course, that is only if you have a reliable backup ready to start or if you can get a lesser and reliable quarterback as part of the deal. Don't be stranded without a serviceable quarterback. Palmer and the Cincinnati Bengals have one of the toughest schedules in football. They will face a long string of tough defenses, which will limit his production. On top of that, while the severe knee injury that he suffered last year appears to be a thing of the past, there is no guarantee that the knee holds up all year. I'd consider him below Manning and Donovan McNabb, and not much above Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck, if at all.

What you want to try and do is get another owner to give you too much for him. Right now the perception is that he is back to his number one fantasy QB performer status, right there with Peyton Manning. Palmer was ranked higher than Manning last year. If you can get a top tier running back or wide receiver, whatever it is your team is lacking, go for it. Try and package up Palmer with, say, a guy like Frank Gore or Brian Westbrook, a number two running back who have maybe already hit their peak value, for an underachiever like Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson, and to a lesser degree Tiki Barber. Make some offers. See what happens. You'll be laughing when Palmer runs into the tough defenses and puts up numbers no better than Pennington and Grossman.

Running backs

Don't panic on underachievers like Carnell Williams, Lamont Jordan, Larry Johnson , Shaun Alexander, and so on… not yet!

It is time to consider other options, though. If you need to take a slight hit on the price you paid for them, it could be worth it. Try to limit your risks. If you can package Williams up with a wide receiver like Donald Driver of Green Bay, who is coming off a big week, and get Steven Jackson or Tiki Barber, or even possibly Frank Gore, it might be worth it, especially if you can get a decent receiver in return or off the waiver wire (see below).

Here's why: Williams is part of a bad offense. Tampa Bay seems to be going nowhere. They don't appear anywhere near scoring a lot of points, which means several things. Williams won't have as many scoring opportunities as expected. Defenses see that his quarterback, Chris Simms, is not very good. They will make him beat them and will then stack up against Williams. He won't have room to run. To make things worse, his offensive line looks bad. He is suffering from back spasms. There is nothing good about the situation, other than that he is a strong, fast runner with potential.

You can't just let him go or trade him for significantly less value. More than likely you spent a first round or early second round pick on him. You have to get near that value back. The trick is doing it, or holding your breath. If it were me, I'd be throwing offers out there, looking for teams with a comparable running back like Jackson, Ronnie Brown, and to a lesser extent Willis McGahee, Warrick Dunn, or even Willie Parker and Brian Westbrook. Then see which ones need wide receiver help and offer a package deal to help their receiving core. You get a safer running back, which is much harder to get. To win a championship, you usually need two strong running backs, and can't afford to have your top pick underperforming.

On the other hand, if you have an extra running back or wide receiver, someone not ranked nearly as high as Williams and want to take a risk, see if his owner is ready to abandon ship. Throw him a top wide receiver or number three running back coming off a big week and keep Williams stored. If he comes back and produces top numbers, you have great insurance or great trade bait to upgrade elsewhere. Buy low, sell high. That, and risk management, is the name of the game.

Also, always keep in mind who your backups are. Make good free agent acquisitions. For example, even if you have Anquan Boldin and Marvin Harrison on your team, if Antonio Bryant is available, pick him up. You can trade Boldin or Harrison and replace him with Bryant, who should put up comparable numbers.

Frank Gore is for real

I expect Gore to be a top ten fantasy running back for the remainder of the season. Treat him that way. See if his owner doesn't. In most cases, Gore was drafted as a number three or four running back on fantasy teams. That means that his owner likely has an excess of running backs. He doesn't know who to use each week. Either he is benching Gore even though he is ranked number one of all running backs, or he is benching someone he spent a high pick on. Either way, a running back should be there for the taking. Try and offer him a good wide receiver for either Gore or the other unused running back. That is, if you need a running back. Keep in mind the needs of the owner's team. If they need a defense and a tight end, give him both of those and a top wide receiver. Do anything you can to take one of those running backs. They are the most important thing.

Do what you can to get Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Tiki Barber, and Clinton Portis now

None of them are producing like their top five pick warranted. Their owner is likely frustrated. Alexander is the top of that list. If you can package up your top running back and a wide receiver, or a QB like Palmer, do it. He will come through. He and his offense are too good not to. He might not be as good as he was last year, but he will be top three to five, probably of all players. Right now he is not even top twenty. Try to get him at that value. Same goes for all of them. Portis is a risk, but if you can get him and still maintain another good running back and a decent backup, too, go for it. Just see if someone is ready to panic. Don't insult them, but throw some offers out. Someone might bite.

Also, keep in mind the two for two trade. There are several running backs out there that are remaining below the radar, players like Ahman Green for Green Bay, Kevin Jones for Detroit, or there are players like Carnell Williams and Lamont Jordan. It is a risk, but it might be worth it to trade two players like Brian Westbrook and Willie Parker, mid-tier running backs who have performed well so far, for players with much more upside, like a combination of Barber and Kevin Jones. Jones has done nothing, and might not. Westbrook has looked good and has great upside. But he is injury prone and might be of no use down the road. Jones could turn it around. You never know. So if you can trade two overachieving, overvalued backs for one sure fire back and a risk, go for it. It might help you waltz through the playoffs. If you do, try and make sure you have a safety net (i.e., a decent backup. See waiver suggestions below).

And always keep in mind the players' schedules when making a deal. Now is not the time to trade for Rudi Johnson. His value is as high as anyone's after two big weeks, but he, like Palmer, is going to face a long line of good defenses. He might not, and probably won't, produce numbers like he has so far. He's a potential sell high player.

Wide receivers

Get Chad Johnson

Johnson's numbers shouldn't be affected by a tough schedule. Palmer will need to rely on him. He should be as good as ever, and he hasn't done much so far. Owners might be willing to part with him for a good tight end and a lesser receiver, or a backup running back and a lesser receiver. Check his owner's roster, see what he needs. If you have something he needs, you might be able to upgrade at receiver into a Chad Johnson model.

Same goes for Steve Smith

Take a chance. He has been hurt. No one knows what to expect. Don't give up too much. But if you can package a Donald Driver from Green Bay or someone like Laveranues Coles from New York, who leads all receivers in yards, and another player, you might be able to get Smith, who single-handedly won some championships last year.

Pick up Troy Williamson, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Jerricho Cotchery, Bernard Berrian, and other young wide receivers (in that order)

At least one of them will be for real, which will allow you to trade a starting wide receiver. It's all about value.

Tight ends

Try and get Antonio Gates

Another big-time player who hasn't done much yet. He was a third round pick or higher. If you can trade a fourth round wide receiver and your tight end for him, do it. Try, see what happens. Teams with Gates usually make the playoffs.

Defenses

It's clear so far this year that a good team Defenses, in leagues that require one, can help you win. Those owners who have Baltimore or Chicago most likely won in the first two weeks. Shutouts almost always mean a victory because of the amount of points awarded, on top of what it takes to produce a shutout (turnovers and sacks). Vice versa, those who expected great things out of Carolina, Tampa Bay and New York Giants are probably hurting a little bit. They got no production from them, which puts you at a big handicap. You can't expect a shutout every week though. While defenses are important, they shouldn't be relied on, aside from maybe Chicago. If you can trade away a defense like Chicago or Baltimore for major value, consider it, especially if you get a good defense in return as part of the deal. Usually, the difference in points between starting fantasy defenses is pretty small, less than ten points.

Oh, and consider matchups. If your defense is playing the colts, try to avoid using them. They don't turn the ball over and score all day. On the other hand, if the defense is playing the Raiders or Texans, go ahead and use a mediocre defense. They're bound to turn the ball over and could easily be shut out or kept to a minimum. Those are typically safe bets for good production, which will give you an advantage.

In fact, play the matchups across the board. Lots of experts say not to. I think it works. You should never bench Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander, and LaDanian Tomlinson, or Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis or even Rudi Johnson, and maybe Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson. But the rest of them, consider who they play. It makes a big difference. Look at Willie Parker last week against the Jaguars. He was huge in Week One against Miami, looked great, and bounced back by gaining 1 yard per carry for a total of 26. Attribute that to the Jaguars defense. You're typically better off starting a lesser running back (within reason) against a weak defense. It's good to start wide receivers who face easy matchups; that is, bad secondaries. If they have a known advantage over a cornerback or the game figures to be a shootout, start that receiver, even if it is hit or miss. It's much nicer to hit it big than go for a safe bet of five points. A game rarely comes down to five points.

Other things to note

The trick to building your team is to pay attention. Watch the games, see who looks good. I picked Willie Parker in the fifth round this year because I thought he couldn't fail in the Steelers offense. They have a great offensive line and play some soft defenses. If nothing else, he should be good for 100 yards most weeks. He is now rated at second round value. Look for things like that, teams that move the ball and score points. You want players from those teams, and vice versa.

Check the waiver wire FREQUENTLY. People do crazy things. Lamont Jordan was cut in one of my leagues. He was ranked 11 of all players before the season. He is the only running back in Oakland. As bad as they are they will score points. Don't dump value like that, but pick it up if you can. Look for trends. Look for players who consistently get receptions. If a receiver on the waivers gets seven receptions in three straight games but doesn't score, take a chance. He might start scoring. The QB obviously likes him, and might soon be putting up major numbers. Look at good backup running backs. Michael Turner and Correll Buckhalter, for example. They could produce huge numbers if the starter in front of them gets hurt. If you have room on your roster, pick them up and keep them there in case that happens. It could mean a free fantasy stud. Planning ahead is how you win championships.

And look over the rosters of other teams in your league. Find the teams that need something that you have a surplus of. Offer trades. Don't insult people; be fair. Try and get underachievers. Offer players in positions where they have holes. Owners are typically vulnerable and don't act rationally when they perceive they have a weakness. Exploit them. Try and get rid of players you think have reached their peak. And so on… IT'S ALL ABOUT VALUE: IMMEDIATE VALUE, POTENTIAL VALUE AND PERCEIVED VALUE. Try to get the most value out of your players, whether that is using them, trading them, or dumping them for someone with more value. Figure out ways to make your players and team as valuable and dominating as possible. Let the wheeling dealing begin. Now is the ideal time to do it. Separation Sunday!

Good luck!