Sestak Defeats Specter by Wide Margin

Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania -- I think the large margin of victory in Joe Sestak's win over Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania primary surprised everyone, even me. Rep. Joe Sestak defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary by 8 percentage points, in a race where the conventional polls pictured a neck and neck race.

Interpretations of a Sestak victory are more predictable, however, as everything went wrong for Arlen Specter, beginning with his party switch and the endless replaying of a loop of a film clip with the senator saying he changed parties simply because he wanted to get re-elected. President Obama and Vice-president Biden didn't help, afraid they would catch the flu if they appeared in person with the sagging Arlen Specter.

Too, everyone underestimated Joe Sestak, who found his political voice late in the race, and was appreciated by Pennsylvania voters for at least being an honorable Naval officer. Given the mood of the voters, Republican Pat Toomey should not make the mistake of underestimating his opponent, who bucked the powerful Washington Democrat establishment in a way that looks like "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington." It's a great narrative if it holds, and Mr. Sestak may be more successful by keeping arm's length of the White House.

Current administration supporters today are looking for a narrative to counter yesterday's elections as a repudiation of the Obama White House. MSNBC is the place to look for that narrative, and MSNBC's Chuck Todd points to the Mark Critz victory over Tim Byrne for John Murtha's vacated Senate seat. To those who know Critz, that rationale has a gaping hole in it, because Critz seems to have portrayed himself as the "un-Obama." He's pro-gun, anti-abortion, and outspoken in opposition to President Obama's health care bill. Along with Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln, who survived to fight another day, Critz is another sign that traditional Democrats have not yet been entirely purged by President Obama's left-leaning administration. Still, liberal Democrats tend to stress the Critz victory as a triumph for administration politics, when the opposite is also true.

"If things are trending toward Republicans, that district (12^th) should have gone to the Republican," said Savannah Guthrie, MSNBC co-anchor.

When I went to the voting booth yesterday, it was raining hard and parking spaces yearned for occupation. There was no line, and polling attendants seemed glad to see me. After voting, I struck up a conversation with Mark Mellio, who voted for Sestak. Mellio was young, smart, about 20, a nice kid who might have looked comfortable with a pocket protector for his pens. He was typical of the "new blood" theorists and lamented that he hadn't seen any people of his own age voting.

"How does he (Specter) suddenly run as a Democrat?" Mellio wondered.

There was a much older woman standing near. I thought they might be related but they weren't. She told me her name but, being tone-deaf, I didn't get it and it was quite a complicated name. She sported an "I voted" sticker on her lapel and told me she had come to vote on the Republican side. I only learned two things from her: she was high on Lou Barletta, the Hazleton, Pa. Mayor who will oppose Rep. Paul Kanjorski in November, and that she didn't much care for Michelle Obama.

A few harried people came by but the rain and cold didn't' encourage communication. Apparently, they had the same problem in Philadelphia where, in spite of Governor Rendells' exhortations, turnout was low.

Later in the day, at a convenience store, I spotted an acquaintance who had forgotten to remove the "I voted" sticker from his lapel. Aren't you supposed to do that right away? I didn't know the guy well enough to know anything about his politics, so I naturally wondered. His name is Mike Boushell, and he lives in the vicinity of East Stroudsburg University. I began my interrogation with light banter, as I hadn't bumped into him for over a year, discovering that, like me, he was opposed to the extent of the bailouts, the health care bill, and the wild deficit spending, and more. Moreover, he thought his freedoms were "shrinking" and he perceived Obama's expansion of government as "excessive."

Just when I thought I'd found a brother in arms, he said:

"I voted for Sestak."

Go figure.

Sources:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0519/Arlen-Specter-out-Rand-Paul-advances-Blanche-Lincoln-fights-on

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/3012294/pennsylvania_may_reject_arlen_specter.html?cat=9