Shiite Cleric in Iran Issues Fatwa to Baghdad

Strategic Forecasting reported October 22 that Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Kadhim al-Husseini al-Haeri published a fatwa, or religious decree, "...forbidding Baghdad from signing a deal with the United States that would allow U.S. troops to remain in Iraq until 2011."

The decree comes at a time when both Washington and Baghdad have said they are close to finalizing a deal on the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, even though there appears to be a lot of resistance among some key Shiite blocs in the Iraqi parliament.

STRATFOR says the fatwa, since it comes from a Shiite cleric instead of a Sunni cleric, "...is considered to have great importance - it is binding and could help sway both politicians and the masses." However, STRATFOR notes, each cleric has a geographic constituency that limits the effectiveness of their fatwas, with the notable exceptions of a few clerics like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani that have a transnational following. It was also noted in the report that al-Haeri is close to the movement of Moqtada al-Sadr, who has already voiced his objection to a security pact between Iraq and the United States.

Since al-Haeri, an Iraqi cleric, chose to remain in Iran after Shiites came to power in Iraq, the report says, his authority and influence are further limited. "As such," the report says, "his fatwa does not have the same force among Iraqis as would one that came from an ayatollah in the Iraqi Shiite religious establishment based in the Iraqi holy city of An Najaf."

Interestingly, and I was not aware of this, STRATFOR says al-Haeri's fatwa is the first from a Shiite cleric to oppose the U.S. military presence in Iraq. "For years," the report says, "the Shia refrained from a fatwa of jihad against U.S. forces, and for good reason. The U.S. invasion facilitated a historic shift in the balance of power in Iraq, allowing its Shiite majority to gain power."

As for the motivation behind the fatwa, STRATFOR argues that the decree is in reality an Iranian response to U.S. efforts to secure a security pact with Baghdad. "It is the beginning of an attempt to shape Iraqi Shiite public opinion," the report states, "on religious grounds, regarding the future U.S. military presence in Iraq."

What's the impact of the fatwa likely to be? Nothing much, according to the report. If the analysis is correct, the decree represents nothing more than an Iranian attempt to make its voice heard among the Iraqis calling the shots in Baghdad.