Should You Dodge or Should You Block?

Although Blood Bowl is a game of skill, there is quite a bit of luck involved. A few bad dice rolls can ruin a perfectly planned game, so it is imperative that you understand the risks involved in all of your moves.

Which is more likely to succeed? Making a dodge out of a tackle zone or throwing a block? That depends on a few factors. If you're unfamiliar with the probability involved in these actions, you may want to take a look back at this article on the probability of dodging and this article on the probability of blocking.

Let's take a look at a few examples and see what happens.

Wood Elf Catcher

You're playing Wood Elves, and your Catcher is near the end-zone. He's got the ball. But, he's also got an ugly Dwarf Blocker hanging on to his heels.

You've got two choices. You can bring a Lineman over and blitz the Dwarf - throwing a two die block. Or you can make the seemingly simple dodge out of the Dwarf's grasp and scamper into the endzone. Let's also assume that it's the last turn of the game and you, unfortunately, have no re-rolls left.

I think the typical Elfy thing to do would be to dodge. Unfortunately, the Catcher's Dodge skill is negated by the Blocker's Tackle skill. The Catcher therefore doesn't get a free re-roll, and he has one shot to make the dodge. With an Agility of 4, he's got a 5/6 chance (83.33%) of succeeding (roll anything but a 1). Not bad.

What, though, is the odds on the block? Your silly Lineman doesn't have block, but at least he'll have the benefit of rolling two dice against the Dwarf. With each die, he's got a 1/3 chance of failing (rolling a Skull or a Skull-POW). Rolling the two dice together, there's a 1 in 9 chance (11.11%) that you'll double skull and knock yourself over. In other words, there's an 88.89% chance that you'll succeed!

As it turns out, throwing the block has slightly better odds than making the dodge. The advantage isn't extreme in this case, but it's there.

Amazon Catcher

Enough elves. Let's see some normal people in action. Your Amazon Catcher is in a similar situation - only squares away from the endzone, but tied up by an Orc Blitzer. Dodge out or bring over an assist and blitz the Orc off?

Again, it's the end of the game and you have no re-rolls. But... the Catcher has Dodge and the Blitzer does not have tackle. Free re-rolls, woot! With only one roll, you'd have only a 66.67% chance of succeeding. With two dice rolls, you've got a 1/3 * 1/3 or 1/9 chance of failing - meaning you've got an 8/9 (88.89%) chance of succeeding. Hmm... good odds on the Dodge.

If you've got an assist, you can throw a two-die block. The Blitzer has Block, but your Catcher does not yet have the almighty Blodge (Block and Dodge, of course). You've got a 1/3 chance of failing on each die (Skull or Skull-POW), yielding a 1/3 * 1/3 or 1/9 (11.11%) chance of failing with a two die block. Hmm... looks familiar, doesn't it?

In other words, your odds are exactly the same whether your Dodge out or throw a Blitz and try to shimmy into the end-zone. Your choice. Although by throwing a block you open up the possibility of causing a casualty, where-as you don't increase the probability that your player would get hurt. I think it's time to hit stuff!

Skaven Gutter Runner

For our final example, let's use a Skaven Gutter Runner. Agility 4, Dodge, small and squishy. He seems like a great candidate for Dodging. He's up against a Wood Elf Wardancer that's earned a skill and taken Side Step. Hmm... now things are getting tricky.

Same situation as before. Wardancer is tying up the Gutter Runner, who wants to get away and score. You can dodge out or bring another player up to Blitz the Wardancer, hope to get him off the Gutter Runner, and then score. As luck would have it, you do have a team re-roll left.

So the odds on dodging... With one die, you've got a 5/6 chance to succeed and a 1/6 chance to fail. That means you've got a 1/6 * 1/6 or 1/36 (2.77%) of falling over when you dodge out. Well, that seems pretty good.

What about throwing the block? Well, Side Step makes things tricky. A push is no longer acceptable - you need a knock down! Given that the Wardancer has Blodge, that's going to be tough. On each die, you've got a 1/6 chance of succeeding. Given the re-roll, you can roll a total of four dice and hope that one of them comes up a POW!

On each die, there's a 5/6 chance that you won't knock him over. Multiply that four times (5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) and you get a 625/1296 (48.22%) chance that you won't knock him over... in other words, there's a 51.88% chance that you will knock him over. Well, that's not so good.

I think it's time to take the Dodge.

What if the Wardancer didn't have Side Step? Well, you'd have a 2/3 chance with each die of pushing him off. The odds that all four dice fail you is 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 or 1 in 81 (1.23%). In that case, you'd be better off throwing a blitz with a re-roll. Either way, you've got a teeny tiny chance of failing, but the block is even more likely to be successful than the dodge.

Do the Odds

As a rule of thumb, dodging without a re-roll is probably less effective than blocking with two dice - even if you've got that amazing Agility 4. If you're agility 3 and you can re-roll a dodge, your odds are probably pretty similar between dodging and blocking.

If, on the other hand, you can re-roll the two-die block, you're almost guaranteed to be successful... and that's the way to go!