Should Hillary Clinton Get Out of the Race?

Despite her crushing victory in Pennsylvania, rumblings in the political class and the media are still being heard to persuade Hillary Clinton to get out of the race. After all, she only won a net ten delegates and the math for catching up to Obama is problematic.

Hillary Clinton and her supporters might be forgiven if they look askance at such demands. A look at the political landscape suggests that Senator Clinton could actually pull out a win in the end over Barack Obama. These demands smell of the old story of the more competent, most experienced woman being shouldered aside in favor of some good looking, fast talking male. It is especially galling of Clinton and her supporters, coming as it does in the wake of her demonstrating serious weaknesses in the Obama candidacy.

Here is what Hillary Clinton is looking at.

There are a handful of contests left, primarily the ones in Indiana and North Carolina, with about six or so hundred delegates left. The math is indeed against Hillary Clinton winning enough delegates to pass Barack Obama, not to mention getting above the magic 2025 number needed to clinch the nomination.

But then the math is also against Barack Obama getting past that number. So, after the last vote is counted in June, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are short what they need to get the nomination.

This scenario, by the way, leaves out Michigan and Florida, whose delegates at present are ineligible to be seated at the Democratic National Convention. But surely the Democrats do not propose to hold their convention with just forty eight states, pretending that they are meeting in the year 1956 before Alaska and Hawaii were admitted to the Union? Either the Democrats find some way to seat those delegations, or have a revote, or some kind of arrangement, or they can pretty much forget the idea of carrying those two states in the Fall and hence winning the election.

In any case, it will then be up to the super delegates. Barack Obama will argue that he is deserving of the nomination as he will have the most delegates and, maybe, most of the popular vote (there are some scenarios that suggest that Hillary Clinton would have more of the popular vote even if she lagged in delegates.)

Hillary Clinton will argue that (a) she has more of the popular vote (if she has it, which she might, especially if Michigan and Florida are factored in), (b) she has won more of the large states like New York and California that Democrats must carry to win in the Fall, and (c) Barack Obama has proven, from Bittergate, to his unfortunate friendships with terrorists, criminals, and mad preachers, that he is unelectable.

Will the super delegates listen? Maybe, maybe not. But all Hillary Clinton has to do is to win enough super delegates to still deny Barack Obama the nod on the first ballot at the convention. Then things get really interesting.

There has not been a brokered convention in over fifty years. It will not be a pretty picture. There will be promises made, threats issued, arms twisted by both the Clinton and the Obama camp. The side that wins will be the side that proves itself better at back stabbing and back room dealing. Can anyone bet against the Clintons in such a contest?

So, Hillary Clinton has no reason to get out of the race. The good of the party? What good will the Democratic Party have if it goes down to an epic defeat in November at the hands of John McCain.? That's the ultimate argument and how it plays out will be discussed and chewed over for decades to come.