Signs of Recovery

The recession was a year old before the government and press finally admitted there was a recession. Most of us (barring the head honchos of banks, big business, government etc.) knew the economy was in trouble long before any hint of the problems showed up in the press.

I think the downturn actually began two to four years ago. How do I know this? Because I owned and operated a business that was a bell wether. That is, when things are going sour my type business was one of the first to slack off. An additional observation here; this type of business is also one of the last to pick back up when coming out of tough economic times. When people begin taking riding lessons and buying first horses again you know a recovery is complete.

I gave riding and driving lessons, trained horses, and boarded horses. This was my main career for forty-four years. And over those forty-four years I learned something very important. The horse business, at least in the beginner's lessons and first horse areas I worked in, is a very reliable indicator of just how well (or not) the economy is doing. Horses are a luxury item for most people. Riding and driving lessons for beginners are definitely luxuries.

The first thing to go in most households when money is tight is any absolutely unnecessary expense. Horseback riding is high on that list. Music and art lessons tend to be good indicators as well. These are almost always going to be cut first. Oh, occasionally if the student is unusually talented and dedicated the lessons may continue at the expense of some other luxury, but by and large these lessons go first.

This began happening four years ago. And then factories began closing. While there weren't layoffs in other businesses they began letting positions go unfilled. Then, about a year-and-a-half ago, things got serious. Oh, the stock market was at amazing heights (can we say over filled balloon here?), but otherwise things were really beginning a downward trend.

I think that the first signs of recovery may be starting. One reason I am considering this possibility is because a news article was released early this morning about Ford reopening a plant in Brook Park, Ohio.

This plant was one of the closures back in 2007. It was the last of ten plants Ford closed then. It was closed for retooling as a source of a new, more fuel efficient engine. Only it didn't reopen at the scheduled time because of the lack of sales. Now it is opening again.

This is not a huge sign of recovery, but I choose to believe that it is like that tiny, almost, bud you see on trees while it is still deep winter. Not actually a green shoot yet, but the indication that the tree is getting ready to sprout.

I am also looking at other local signs that may be harbingers of the beginning of the end; last night we went to one of our favorite local restaurants and found that they had all their tables full. This hasn't happened any time in the past eighteen months.

The owner of the feed store I buy my feed at said his business was picking up as well, and not just because of spring planting. He said he was doing twice the business he did last year.

Lastly a house a friend had on the market for four years sold; and for a good price.

I am going to choose to believe that these events indicate, barring some really unusual event, we are at the beginning of the end of this recession.

Sources for this article are The Associated Press, Kentucky.com, Lexington-Herald Leader and MSNBC.com