Simple Equation to Help You Select More Football Pool Winners

Summer is beginning to wind down. In a couple of more weeks the first signs of fall will become visible. The leaves on the trees will begin displaying their vast array of fall colors, the vegetables in the family garden will require harvesting, the children will be back in school, and football season will begin. Oh yes, football, the gladiator sport of our times. Bi-weekly and sometimes even tri-weekly, televised events will fill millions of television screens and computer monitors around the globe. Just as the Super Bowl is the recognized fixture of the end of the football season, participating in football pools is the recognized season long fixture that keep the fans enthused and their appetites' peaked for each week's outcome. Over 36% of those who participated in a national survey confirmed they take part regularly in professional sports pools.

The ultimate prize for the football pool participant is to win. A few do so on a regular basis, however, the vast majority of the participants do not. Is there a system, a guide, a method that can aid the losers and help increase their seasonal winnings? According to Bryan Clair, a Mathematics Professor at St. Louis University there is. He says, "Your best shot is to bet against the favorites." A unique bracket is what is needed, one that is consistently correct and allows you to pick those crazy upsets, which occur every season, which everyone else overlooks. On average, there are 5 upsets per week, all season long.

Clair authored a study entitled Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools. Utilizing his mathematics background and sports statistics, he developed a number of strategies that can increase the winning odds in favor of the football pool participants. Here are a couple of his strategies;

Historically, the home team underdogs have covered the spreads the majority of the time. Statistics reveal this has occurred 58% of the time thus far. Look for games that have a spread of less than 3 points. Selecting the underdogs instead of simply choosing the favorites, because that is what everyone else does, will give you a net gain of two games or more for the season.

When participating in large pools you should calculate your risk and take a more aggressive approach at selecting your team. One of Clair's studies disclosed 90% of the football pool players surveyed made the same 20 sets of picks in national pools consistently, even though there were 5 upsets each week. Here is his simple equation to help you make better picks;

P minus 0.5 divided by A minus 0.5 = at least 2 (P - 0.5 / A - 0.5 = 2.0 or less). P - is the percentage of people selecting the favorite team to win. (such as the ESPN pigskin picks or your pool mates). A - is the statistical probability of the favorite team to win

If the factor is around 2.0 (low 2.0's) and you are participating in a large (national) pool, select the pool underdog. If you are playing in a small office pool, select the pool favorite. If the factor is a 3.0, an office pool underdog pick would be the better choice.

This is not an exact science. As with all professional sports pool participation there are risks and you proceed accordingly. The margin for error is only calculable by the team's injury list, trades, weather conditions, etc.; during the game and the season. Whenever you participate in football sports pools you're taking a chance. This information can hopefully improve the chances in your favor.

Resource: Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools by Bryan Clair