On paper, Mexico appears a strong favorite to win the Group A's clash. South Africa is viewed by many experts as the weakest among the six African teams at the 2010 World Cup. The host country does not have the soccer pedigree of a Cameroon or a Nigeria; the team has not even been a contender at the regional level. Mexico, on the other hand, has participated in World Cup finals on numerous occasions and achieved reasonable successes. Moreover, Mexico comes to South Africa as one of the favorites to win its group and perhaps advance to as far as the quarterfinal.
The one thing that is going in South Africa's favor is the historic fact that no host country has ever failed to advance past the group stage. Many had thought this trend would be bucked with hosts South Korea and Japan at the 2002 World Cup, but it turned out not to be the case as both countries reached the knockout stage. Home-field advantage seems firmly-rooted at the FIFA World Cup, and South Africa is likely the recipient of such advantage.
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The Group A's clash between South Africa and Mexico is critical to both teams. A loss would be devastating for either team. It is no secret that Mexico believes South Africa is the weakest among the teams in Group A. Consequently, anything less than a victory against the host would be perceived as a defeat. On the other hand, South Africa will look to split a point with the CONCACAF's top team. The host's best chance to reach the knockout stage would be to hold Mexico and France to a draw and perhaps sneak a win by Uruguay. A loss against Mexico is certain to bring South Africa to the brink of elimination.
Mexico arrives to South Africa in mediocre form. The team has not played well in recent friendlies and warm-ups. Mexico, on full strength, suffered defeats in the hands of European powers England and the Netherlands. In contrast, South Africa has been performing very well in friendlies with lopsided victories over credible opponents. Obviously, we should not draw too much from meaningless friendlies and warm-up matches. Yet, South Africa appears not to be the push-over that many have come to believe.
My predictions for South Africa vs. Mexico (World Cup 2010 Group A): The game ends in a 1-1 draw.
Published by Simon Nguyen
Simon Nguyen is a researcher who holds a Master's degree in economics. His areas of expertise are public policy, labor and sport. View profile
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