South Carolina and Super Tuesday

In a state with half the voters being African American, South Carolina is an essential state to win for any Democrat running for president. South Carolinians gave Bill Clintons 92 campaign new life when they decided he would make a better president than the current White House occupant of that time. But on the night of January 26th they chose the freshman Senator of Illinois, Barack Obama, over his rivals Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Senator John Edwards. This was a victory for a campaign that has lost 2 out of 3 contests, and was headed for a rough entry into Super Tuesday. How did Obama win South Carolina, why did Hillary lose, and what does this primary contest mean for Super Tuesday, and the general election? To understand what will come of this election cycle, we first need to understand what happened in South Carolina.

In South Carolina's Democratic primary, Sen. Barack Obama won 25 delegates, narrowing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's lead in the race for the nomination. Clinton won 12 delegates and former Sen. John Edwards won eight. This was important for Obama, he managed to gain diverse support among whites and crossing the generational gap among middle-age and senior black citizens with youth vote. Exit polls showed Obama won four of every five black voters, who made up more than half of the primary electorate. He also won one-quarter of white votes, higher than many had predicted. Edwards and Clinton, however, split the remaining white vote.

While back in august of 2007 Obama and Hillary both went from having a 10 point lead to being behind by 10 points. Obama enjoyed a 20 point lead beginning in mid January, but the lead closed in, and then gaining back a week before the South Carolina primary. More than 500,000 people cast ballots in the first Democratic primary in the South.

What does this mean for Super Tuesday?

In the overall race for the nomination, Clinton has 249 delegates, followed by Obama with 167 delegates and Edwards with 58. A total of 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the Democratic nomination. What's clear is that for Obama to win the nomination, he will have to improve his performance among white voters over South Carolina. Being the clear favorite among blacks won't be enough as the candidates turn to 22 states that hold contests on Feb. 5. Obama's overwhelming victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton came with 80 percent of South Carolina's black voters backing him, but only a quarter of whites. Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards each got about a third of the white vote.

In South Carolina, race was a more important factor than gender. Obama defeated Clinton among both women and men, winning just more than half the support of each gender. Clinton won only about three in 10 women overall. But the gender breakdown was racially tinged. Clinton got four in 10 white females, compared with a third for Edwards and one in five for Obama. Edwards won about four in 10 white males, while Clinton and Obama each won about three in 10. But, surprisingly, Obama ran almost even with Clinton among white males - 29 percent to 27 percent - which the Obama campaign took as a bright sign going forward. The segment of whites with whom Obama did well was young people. He won backing from half of white voters under age 30, with Clinton and Edwards splitting the rest. Young white voters, however, made up only about one-twentieth of those who voted Saturday.

Racial attitudes were also in play in voters' perceptions of how effective the candidates would be if elected. Whites were far likelier to name Clinton than Obama as being most qualified to be commander in chief, likeliest to unite the country and most apt to capture the White House in November. Blacks named Obama over Clinton by even stronger margins - two- and three-to one - in all three areas.

Bill Clinton's campaigning in the state - in which he engaged in some of the campaign's sharpest attacks on Obama - was cited as an important factor by nearly six in 10 voters, including about equal amounts of blacks and whites. Overall, those who said it was important voted in favor of Obama, though by smaller margins than those who said it was unimportant, suggesting his effort may have helped Hillary Clinton slightly. As has been the pattern in most of the Democratic contests this year, the economy was cited as the most important issue facing the nation by far, with about half naming it. About half of those voters backed Obama and about three in 10 supported Clinton. Obama had an even bigger edge among voters naming health care or the war in Iraq as the top problem. Super Tuesday will be decided by voters who want change, who want experience and knowledge of the issues, and who are concerned about both Iraq and the economy. Hillary Clinton ranks highest among those concerns, and thus, stands the best chance to make a big showing on Super Tuesday.

What does this mean for the general election if Hillary is nominee?

Hillary is in good shape in the run up to the general election. The nomination is just in reach, and her support would be strong to ensure a good start come fall. Hillary leads Obama with 49% to 24% in New York; she leads Obama with 48% to 27% in New Jersey; setting up a big win on Feb 5th. The strategy for the general election will be different, with Bill talking more about his Foundations work and answering the question of his envolvement in his wife's administration. She will drive home the issues of the economy, healthcare, and Iraq. Education has surfaced through obama as an issue, and will grow into top major concerns. Hillary's record on education is by far better than any of the republican candidates, can could stand to give her a winning edge.

What does this mean for the general election if Obama is nominee?

The general election will be a tough fight if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, but it will be especially tough if the party nominee is Barack Obama. He will have to set up his own 'war room' to handle any attacks; he'll have to erase the racial divide; convince voters his ready; and make sure the election is about the issues and not race. If McCain is the GOP nominee, Obama will need to use his youth as a positive, emphasizing the need for the next president to be highly energetic and ready for long hours. To dishearten the republican base, Obama will need to bring McCains voting record to the spotlight, to debase McCains reputation as a 'maverick' and emphasize his 'non republican' attributes.

No matter who is the nominee, it is clear from the democratic turnout in the states from Iowa to Florida, the fall election will see record turnout for the Democratic Party.