Sunni Awakening Councils Influence Shi'ite Revolt Against Iranian Meddling in Iraq

The concept of Concerned Local Citizens (CLC) Groups was something that the Multinational Force: Iraq Central Command had considered expanding to southern Shi'ite regions of Iraq. However, Shi'ia national political leaders are "fearful of establishing and empowering organizations that may rival existing political structures," a high-level 2007 report to Congress prepared by the MNFI shows. However, an even more powerful ally is rising in the wake of Muqtada al-Sadr's abandonment of violence last year, influenced heavily by the Sunni Awakening Councils of al-Anbar Province: a Shi'ite variant of awakening councils.

There's been some fear that with the British pull out of the Basrah region, armed with Iranian provocateurs, the southern Iraqi regions would explode into a Mahdi Army induced bloodbath, however the Department of Defense notes in its report to Congress that the security situation in the South has "deteriorated only slightly," primarily as rogue elements of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army quarrels with its rivals in the Badr Brigades. Violence in the region has long been stoked by training and armaments that consistently arrive from Iran - which the Iranian regime insists occurs independently of the government, and vowed to try to reduce.

To date, there has been no reduction in weapons flows or professional training of Shi'ite militants by Iranians.

However, whether because of increased nationalism or a rejection of the general meddling of the Shi'ite neighbor, that the Bush Administration fears is creating a nuclear weapon and charges with stoking the flames of war in Iraq, the Iraqi militias in the south have appealed to create their own awakening councils, much like those that have pacified al-Anbar and Baghdad.

In addition to casting off Iranian influence, there is a strong possibility that the awakening councils have simply self-preserving motivations, as al-Sadr's ceasefire has effectively torn the Mahdi Army (which the MNFI refers to as JAM) apart. According to the BBC, the Mahdi Army is no longer a homogenous force, and has degenerated into smaller cells that act entirely upon their own orders.

The Department of Defense acknowledges in its reports to Congress that, despite the rapid drop in violence against Coalition forces, there are still sporadic attacks by elements of the Mahdi Army against allied convoys, and occasional attacks (including mortars and forced takeovers) of Iraqi police stations. In response, the Iraqi army has launched operations to clear out Mahdi influence from the Qadisiyah capitol of Diwaniyah.

According to the report, the effort has "at least temporarily significantly altered the balance of power in that city."

The good news of the Shi'ite Awakening Councils abandoning Iranian influence is not without controversy, however, as several members of government fear that an increase in power of southern Awakening Councils could result in a shift in the power paradigm.

This also comes on the heels of a historic legislation known as the Provincial Powers Law, which will effectively designate the powers of local, provincial leaders in Iraq, and the rise of awakening councils could significantly effect how local sheiks and imams may have their political future shaped.

Among the primary motivations of the Shi'ite Awakening Councils appears to be the restoration of the overall security that has so hindered Iraqi life since the increase in al-Qaeda in Iraq activity. The foreign terrorist group that has overtaken the domestic resistance fighters, even dwarfing the deposed Ba'ath Party, the Islamic Army of Iraq, and other homegrown insurgencies now on the side of the Coalition. Many Shi'ite and Sunnis groups have even begun reconciling in what is known as "bottom-up reconciliation" at the local level in the concerted effort to drive al-Qaeda in Iraq from the country.

Sources:

-Pentagon/Department of Defense
-Multinational Force: Iraq Central Command
-Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq - December 2007 Report to Congress
-Shi'ite Awakening Councils Set up to Fight Militia - Iraq Update
-BBC Coverage