Super Bowl or Bust Part Two

Last week I was 3-1 on calling who won and lost. Getting the score right, not so much. This time around I'm just picking the winner and for a better reason then it's tough to predict scores, the games are much harder to call this week. But why waste anymore time, let's get right to the analysis...

Patriots at San Diego

When you read up on the Game of The Week, there are three things everyone throws into their previews of the match up: coaching record, schedule, and LT.

Ok, we have heard the playoff record of Schottenheimer. Done to death and doesn't show a lot except the possibility that it was him and not the players who lost in the postseason. As the old cliché goes, the coach isn't on the field.

We've heard the phrase "weak schedule" and the Chargers put together too many times in a sentence to count. If I had a dollar for every time I heard it, I'd be able to cover bail for the entire Bengals team.

The holy trinity of media overload finalizes with the 'just put eight in the box' talk. LaDainian Tomlinson is going to run on you no matter how many are up front. It is silly to try and focus on shutting him down, the emphasis should be on Rivers. This season showed even a Tom Brady gets rattled when you get enough pressure on him. Every quarterback, no matter how good, cannot do what they do if the defense dictates the behavior.

Now here's an angle most people are not following: Bill Belichick defenses are extremely physical, they hit you hard. Just ask Joe Montana or Andre Reed. The Patriots defense slammed the Colts around so much in 2003 the NFL had to change the rules for pass interference. Besides the Steelers, San Diego has not faced a truly physical defense all season. This is the other key to the game.

This should be another week where it's close until the Patriots get a turnover early in the fourth quarter. Then they run a long, sustained drive killing the clock against a worn out defense. Game, set, match.

Patriots Win and the Chargers don't stay classy with a pep rally before the game.

Colts at Ravens

This is another over-hyped match up because of the stealth move the Colts made in the move to Indianapolis like 80 years ago. Heck, I think someone even blamed global warming as the reason behind it. All I know is I've heard this story so much I feel like personally driving a Mayflower moving van to Indiana and bringing the team back to Maryland just so people stop going on about it. It's been 30-something years now, it's time to let go.

So which Colts defense will show up, the one that dominated a week ago, or the one that watched runners blow by them all season? We know they can score, obviously. The question will be how much against a nasty Ravens defense. Last week was no problem for Manning and his offense but the Chief's defense didn't answer the call.

On the Ravens side is a valuable asset, a quarterback with Super Bowl experience. McNair was one yard shy of passing for the winning touchdown in the 2001 Game. And Jamal Lewis, while seemingly quiet with over 1,100 rushing yards also has Super Bowl experience. Let's not forget SB MVP Ray Lewis either. As long as the defense can hold the Colts down, the Ravens can keep up with them in the scoring department.

Baltimore defense gets to Manning often, keeping the offensive juggernaut from exploding and the Ravens move on to the AFC Championship round.

Ravens win, Colts take a plane back to Indiana this time.

Seahawks at Chicago

Honestly, I just don't know what to make of this one. The consensus is that the Bears roll over Seattle easily en route to the NFC Championship game. But how many times have we seen this kind of match up with the top seed thinking too much about next week lose?

We are talking about a Seahawks team that is actually improved from a year ago when they made it to the Big Dance. But there they ran into a very physical team in the Steelers. Still, they've improved with the addition of Deion Branch and Jeremy Stevens decided to start holding onto balls thrown his way. Maybe he got some tips from Tony Gonzalez about how to hold onto the ball, who knows.

The Bears are an interesting case, a tale of two teams. We have a defense that can score and an offense that hasn't looked great lately, winning shootouts against Tampa Bay and Detroit. I wonder how long before Greise gets the nod if Grossman falters?

The x factor in this game is Mike Holmgren, a man not known for great playcalling in key sitations, not to mention iffy clock management. Remember, Seattle got really lucky last week after a bad decision on the play they ran for the 2 point conversion; they should have ran something else to try and go up by three points. Back in the Denver/GB Super Bowl, Holmgren let the Broncos score so they would have more time to score themselves. It bit them right in the ass and gave Elway his elusive championship ring.

Da Bears find a way to win thanks to their defense in a close one as coach Mike makes yet another postseason game-management blunder.

Bears win. I will say this though, I will not be surprised if Seattle does win but that's as far on the fence as I will ride.

Eagles at Saints

Not to be outdone by the hype of the other games, we have some here. The big one of course is the recovery of the team's fortunes well ahead of the pace of the city they play in. But that is a government issue and it amazes me they re-elected the mayor. Good thing politics aren't like sports or there would be a lot more turnover. Then again, Tom Coughlin still has a job. That's a story for another article.

The other big story in this game is Donte Stallworth. He plays his old team for the first time since his departure. Many times this becomes a situation where you'd think he would light it up. Maybe so, but this won't be an impact on the game unless he's in the range of 100 yards receiving and a couple of touchdowns.

Jeff Garcia taking the reigns and steering Phili to the playoffs is a nice feel-good story too, and like the Patriots, this is a perennial competing team. The core is solid and they are seasoned. The only problem is they have yet to end a postseason with a win and they are just not loaded enough to break that streak this time around.

Man, what can we say about dem Saints? Imagine the world if Brees went to Miami and Houston took Reggie Bush. There is no way New Orleans even wins seven games, let alone secure a #2 seed in the postseason. To top it off McAllister is back in form, they have an incredible rookie WR in Marques Colston and Sean Payton looks like a genius.

Let's get back to reality and an odd stat, the Eagles lead the league in pass deflections and are really low in offense time of possession. While the correlation seems obvious, it's not. Other teams have high pd numbers while at the same time equally high time of possession. What the hell am I getting at here? The Eagles defense spent way too much time on the field in 2006 and I think it will catch up to them this week.

Saints continue their amazing season and get to sit back Sunday and find out who gets to play them for the NFC Championship.

Saints win, Phili retools for yet another run in 2007 with a healthy McNabb.