Super Bowl Simulations Are In:New England Wins

The computer simulations are in and the New England Patriots have won Super Bowl XLII. Well, not exactly - the one that counts is played on Sunday, February 3, and everyone knows anything can happen. After all, this author cannot recall anyone - computer simulation or otherwise - picking the Patriots to win in Super Bowl XXXVI over the Rams. However, this does seem to indicate statistics, if nothing else, are on the Patriots' side.

The SportSims.net simulations were run 500,000 times. In the end, their prediction is Patriots 34 - Giants 24. The average number of points scored was Patriots 28.6 - Giants 20.3. In the 500,000 simulations, the Pats won 79% of the time: in the games they won, they did so by 13 points; in the Giants victories they won by 7.

As reported in USAToday, the SportSims analysis concludes the Giants' keys to victories are to sack Tom Brady three times, contain Wes Welker while not turning the ball over themselves. If they do that, SportsSims suggests, their likelihood of winning goes up to 53%.

Accuscore, another statistical service, also runs games 10,000 times in which they hope to divine a winner. In the final analysis, this service predicts the Patriots over the Giants 30.4 - 21.5.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts staff, ran 101 simulations of the game at whatifsports and came up with 89 wins for the Patriots, 12 for the Giants. The greatest margin of victory for the Giants was 12; 35 of the simulated results had the Patriots winning by 14-20 points and another 26 had the Pats winning by 21 or more. Whatifsports did it's own analysis of the game - running the simulation 10,001 times. Their analysis shows the Patriots winning 77.2% of the time; a number not dissimilar to that of SportSims. Their prediction: Patriots 30 - Giants 16. In their analysis, the average margin of victory is 13.2, but that the Giants lost by 12 or less "more often than not."

The Cold Hard Football Facts gives a blueprint for the Giants that includes forcing 5 negative passing plays and allowing no turnovers; a consistent theme in the simulations and the analysts' recommendations. However, the whatifsports simulation has Eli Manning throwing an interception (0.97) per game to Tom Brady's 0.64 per game; Wes Welker has almost 7 receptions for 72 yards. While the key may be to not turn the ball over and to contain Welker, the simulations suggest that will not be the case.

SportSims claims a 15-5 record in picking Super Bowl winners; WhatIfSports claims a 4-0 record in picking winners.

SportSims predicted a 30-24 victory for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI (Actual Score: Colts 29 - Bears 17)

In the three simulations run by this author at WhatIfSports: the Giants won 33 - 16 (13 unanswered points by the Patriots in the 4^th quarter just couldn't make up for the anemic performance earlier and a 4^th quarter safety by the Giants); the Patriots won 27 -6 (the Giants came unglued in the 3^rd quarter as the Pats scored 13); and the Patriots won 33 - 6 with the Pats scoring 10 points in every quarter but the 1^st, Lawrence Tynes had two 29-yard field goals.

REFERENCE MATERIAL:

http://www.thespread.com/sports-betting-top-stories-900/08-super-bowl-xlii-simulation-accuscore-picks-patriots-30-gian.html

http://www.thespread.com/accuscore/nfl-football-forecasts

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2121_A_101_sim_salute_to_Super_Bowl_XLII.html

http://sportsims.net/pressroom.asp?id=15

http://www.sportsims.net/superbowl42.asp
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2008-01-28-computer-projection_N.htm