Super Bowl XLII: A Pregame Look and Prediction

Week 21. The Super Bowl. The apex of the NFL season. The Championship of the World on the line. This year, the stakes are higher than a trip to DisneyWorld: The Perfect Season, The World Championship, The Greatest Team Ever - the Patriots vs. Team of Destiny, Upstart, Spoiler - The Giants.

For a brief overview of the various rounds of the NFL playoffs on the road to the Super Bowl, my article "A Beginners Guide to the N F L Playoffs" should answer your questions.

The Patriots are on a roll. They have beaten all comers - currently 18-0. The Super Bowl is all that stands in the way of the first 19 game perfect season. The Giants are on a bit of a roll themselves: 3 straight road playoff wins, 10 straight over all.

SUPER BOWL XLII

February 3, 2008

University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale Arizona

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

The Patriots have become a bit of an enigma over the previous two playoff games. They scored a 31-20 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but a 21-12 victory over the San Diego Chargers. The championship game in Foxborough was a cold affair and Tom Brady was apparently injured. The first game featured the Patriots offense, replete with some trickery - the "old statue of liberty play" - the second was underscored with big play defense, holding the injury depleted Chargers to 4 field goals.

The Giants, on the other hand, have been playing some of their best football of the season, knocking off the top seeds in the NFC - defeating the Packers in overtime in the freezer known as Lambeau Field in the Championship game with a 47-yard field goal. This game wasn't particularly pretty, but it's hard to play pretty football in -4 degree temperatures.

With two weeks between the conference championships before the Super Bowl and the expected "perfect" conditions in Arizona, both teams should be prepared to play their best.

In that regard, the Patriots hold a significant advantage - this Patriots team performed particularly well earlier in the season with favorable weather conditions; the Giants never really hit their stride until later on in the season.

The Giants can make a game of Super Bowl XLII - with turnovers and special teams - but to win they will have to not make mistakes of their own and capitalize on whatever mistakes the Patriots give them. There will be little margin of error for the Giants - this is not to say any mistake would be catastrophic, but each mistake makes their job that much more difficult and much less likely of victory.

The Patriots do not need to be perfect in this game to win. They cannot afford to lose focus or to take the Giants lightly. Three interceptions - the game Brady had against the Chargers - will allow the Giants to stay in the game and possibly win.

The Giants can win this game, but they must take advantage of any and every mistake the Patriots make. In the end, Tom Brady is as sharp, confident, and poised in the Super Bowl as he ever is. His decision making this year has been impeccable - for instance, against the Chargers, it was clear his passing game was not working, and proceeded to mount a 9-minute clock killing drive using the running game. The Pats can quick strike like a cobra, or slowly strangle like a python.

Many things would have to go the Giants way for them to be in the position to win and even then they would have to earn it.

Prediction

My predicition: Patriots 31 - Giants 20.