Super Tuesday Will Give Hillary Clinton Democratic Nod

Barack Obama has the momentum from his big victory in South Carolina and endorsements from the Kennedy clan to propel him to Super Tuesday, but Hillary Clinton has a massive national organization with heavy support in delegate rich states like California. Former senator John Edwards is trailing badly and has yet to win a single primary. He has little chance of surviving the Super Tuesday primaries in what has become a two person race for the Democratic nomination.

According to the USA Today/Gallup Poll taken on January 25, Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by 12 percentage points in California. The margin is even wider in the Politco/CNN/LA Times Poll, with Clinton garnering 49% to Obama's 32%. With 370 delegates at stake, a strong showing in California could lock up the nomination for Clinton. The latest poll in Tennessee,conducted on January 20 shows Clinton with a 14 point lead over Obama.

Clinton maintains her lead in the Midwest with 43% to 28% lead over John Edwards in the January 24 Rasmussen Reports Poll in Missouri. Obama trails with 24%. In Colorado the race for the Democratic nomination is extremely tight, with Obama leading Clinton by just two percentage points in the latest Denver Post Poll, a statistical dead heat. In Obama's native Illinois, Obama is beating Clinton handily, with 51% support, according to the latest St. Louis Dispatch Poll.

Nationally, Clinton's lead over Obama in the January 26 USA Today poll is 11 percentage points, up sharply from the January 5 poll that showed the two front runners tied. If Clinton maintains her lead in key states, she could ride a Super Tuesday surge to the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican front the picture is murkier. Nationally, Senator John McCain leads Mitt Romney by eight percentage points in the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll. The same poll has McCain with 35% support in California to Romney's 27%. Former Arkansas Governor trails with 12%.

In New Mexico, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is leading the pack with 38% support, followed by McCain's 20%. Further clouding the picture for the Republican nomination is the January 24 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports Poll in Missouri which shows Huckabee in a virtual tie with John McCain.

In Colorado, the latest Denver Post Poll shows Mitt Romney far ahead of McCain with 43% support compared to 24% for McCain. With varying support in regional pockets throughout the United States, the Republican nomination may come down to which candidate can pull out a win in delegate rich states like California.

If McCain does win California, it will make him the favorite to win the nomination. McCain clearly has the momentum, but support for Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee is strong enough in some areas to make the race for the Republican nomination too close to call until every state holds its primary. For the Republican's, Super Tuesday may not be so super after all. The GOP is left with the possibility of an even tighter race after February 5.

Source: President Polls 2008