Surprise Final Four Closes Curtain on Turbulent Tournament

Every few years, there is an NCAA tournament where the receptionists across the country flex their muscles. Likely the winner in your office pool has read Bridget Jones Diary and not Basketball Jones . Nevertheless, this Saturday evening promises to bring a satisfying end to this drama in three weekend acts.

Matinee: Michigan State versus Butler

MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State is like the great actor you hardly notice, but it seems like they are in every movie. Think about it; naming the Final Fours they weren't a part of is more difficult than vice versa. When Northern Iowa beat Kansas, I looked at the bracket and that was the named that popped off the page.

Strengths: Tom Izzo, Depth, chemistry, toughness, interchangeable parts.
Weaknesses: inexperience at the point, no dominant player.

BUTLER
Let's begin with the perceived stowaway on this final leg. The only team to beat the two highest seeded opponents in their bracket; they have faced the toughest road. No team has scored more than 60 against them, and after 35 games, this can no longer be considered a fluke. Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward turned down Big Ten stalwarts Indiana and Purdue, respectively, and Hayward in particular has better NBA size and skills than any Spartan he will match up against, so measure this team as over-their-heads hayseeds at your own risk.

Strengths: defensive intensity, ability to pace the game.
Weakness: overall speed and length, inconsistent shooting.

Prediction

Neither team will likely break 75. This will be a close, grinding affair, with the key being Butler's offensive stars ability to get off tough shots late and stay out of foul trouble. Michigan State will win the rebounding war, but in the end, look for the Bulldogs to make 5-6 key 3-point shots in the second half, and hold on late. Butler 64, Michigan State 61.

Nightcap: Duke versus West Virginia
DUKE
These are the patrician blue bloods, the aristocrats with the trust funds and the haughty swagger to match. At least, that's how the story goes.

But sometimes, perceptions based on past history should be thus relegated. This team is rugged and tough. They've faced one team that seeks to bludgeon you into submission (Purdue) and instead surgically worked the cut on the Boilermakers with jabs and straight rights, outrebounding them by 21. Their next opponent (Baylor) was replete with whippets; boundless energy and pogo legs, but not much patience, toughness or skill. Coach Mike Krzyzewski knows March, so it is never a surprise when he and his charges appear on the final stage.

Strengths: Great shooting, physicality down low, versatile on the wings, three legitimate scorers.
Weakness: No true point guards, big people not particularly adept offensively.

WEST VIRGINIA
All teams reflect their coach's personality, and probably none more than the Mountaineers. They have not one National Player Of The Year candidate, yet who would you not want on your team. They take you out of what you want to do, and make you play the game on their terms.

Strengths: Toughness, offensive rebounding.
Weaknesses: shooting, shooting, shooting, and turnovers.

Prediction

Don't expect Kyle Singler to go 0-10 from the field again. The Mountaineers will force the Duke's Greg Zoubek and Plumlee brothers to make some plays farther out from the basket than they would prefer, and thus force some turnovers. But in the end, Duke will make some transition 3s before West Virginia can get set their 1-3-1 zone defense, and Nolan Smith will come out slightly better in an epic battle with De'Shaun Butler. Duke 72, West Virginia 66.