Swine Flu H1N1 Outbreak in the Fall: How Serious Will it Be?

The recent swine flu (H1N1) virus outbreak has set the world on edge. Though case numbers were falling worldwide, this trend has apparently reversed. There are and will continue to be new pockets of disease emerging. Most health experts are speculating as to the coming "flu season" and the severity of new infections. Some are doubtful as to the severity of the illness, some think this is just the warning to the storm, but most are taking a "wait and see" approach.

"Flu Season" traditionally occurs during the dry, cold months of late fall and winter. This is usually October through April in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the Southern Hemisphere. Scientists believe there is good reason for the waning of flu infections in the summer months. A recent study at Oregon State University came to the conclusion that humidity plays a large factor along with heat. During the summer months, the air is not only warmer but much more humid as warmer air can hold more water. (1)

At a recent press briefing, World Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartle stated that though we might be seeing only mild to moderate cases now, we cannot say what will happen in the fall, giving an example of the 1918 epidemic which killed more than half a million people in the US. The 1918 illness began with very mild cases in the spring, virtually disappeared over the summer and reemerged with a vengeance in the fall, resulting in the death of more than half a million people in the US. (2)

Some scientists such as James Cherry, MD, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of California at Los Angeles School of Medicine, are speculating that complications with Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) could significantly increase the morbidity and mortality. Stating that the current strain appears to be more similar to the 1957 epidemic where most deaths occurred in people who were also infected with Staphylococcus aureus. In fact, many flu deaths from any strain are caused by a secondary infection such as pneumonia.

Generally, flu viruses cause the most serious effects in the very old and very young. This particular strain of virus is different, affecting people who are younger than usually seen, with a median age of 26 years of age. Many of the deaths have been in patients who were seemingly healthy younger adults. (3)

According to health officials, a "swine flu vaccine" is being developed. The first of which could reportedly be developed soon through a company called Novavax. Rahul Singhvi, president and CEO of Novavax stated in a recent interview with Time Magazinethat his company could develop a vaccine in 10 to 12 weeks after the genome of the virus is known. That would put the availability of the vaccine sometime in the summer.(4)

In the meantime, federal, state and local governments are stockpiling Tamiflu which could lead to a shortage at the local drugstore and hospital when it is needed.

Whatever the case, the world is likely to be in for a scary ride in the fall when flu season begins in the Northern Hemisphere.

sources:

1. Science Daily, Link Found Between Influenza, Absolute Humidity

2. ABC News, Swine Flu: 'Encouraging Signs' But 'We Cannot Lower Our Guard'

3. MedScape H1N1 Flu Predicted to Wane and Reemerge in Fall

4. Alice Park, Time Magazine, How Fast Could a Swine Flu Vaccine Be Produced?