Tablet PCs: Future of Computing or Passing Fad?

When Apple Inc. announced the iPad in January 2010, the world unofficially entered the "Age of the Tablet PC." Other device manufacturers quickly followed Apple's lead with their own versions, resulting in the market exploding with new tablet computers by the end of 2010. In fact, the January 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) International was home to at least 77 debuting tablet PC models. In February, even more debuted at the Mobile World Congress and the CTIA Wireless events.

Is the rising popularity of tablet computers enough to send the desktop computer to its grave, or is the tablet PC simply a fad waiting to fade away when the "next big thing" in technology is developed, as happened to the netbook?

The Progression from Desktops to Mobile Computing

The "modern" computer era began when Apple released the Apple II in 1977, but it cost a whopping $1,298 and only included 4 KB RAM; it was not very popular. Technology has since advanced and desktop computers are smaller, more powerful and inexpensive. Today, anyone can purchase a desktop computer for about $350 with at least 2 GB RAM, a 500 to 750 GB hard drive, and tons of software.

The desktop gave way to mobile computing in 1982 when the first laptop came to market, the GRiD Compass 1101, which cost $8,150. Again, it was not until Apple released the PowerBook in 1991 that laptops became more popular and at only $2,999 to $4,599, they were "inexpensive" in comparison to older models.

Laptops have become smaller, more powerful and inexpensive, but still have the same features that desktops do. The smallest of the laptops is currently the netbook, or the ultra-mobile PC (ULPC). Born in 2007, it offers the same features as laptops, but in half the size. Netbooks sell for about $300 and they were popular initially, but tablets quickly buried them, and they became a three-year fad.

The Age of the Tablet PC

According comScore, as of January 2011, 65.8 million Americans owned smartphones. This number rose 8 percent from December 2010, but tablet PC ownership is rising, so the overall smartphone numbers will most likely taper off, if not decline. This is evidenced by the fact that tablet PC market share rose 120 percent to capture 4 percent of the total market in Q4, according to Strategy Analytics.

Tablets will continue to capture even more of the market as 2011 progresses because manufacturers continue to add features and offer them more inexpensively than ever. While Apple had a head start releasing the first tablet PC, thus creating the tablet market, the flood of tablets that have come since then has been astonishing.

Tablet PC or Desktop Computer?

The reason for the tablet computer's popularity is simple: tablets offer the same features that desktops and laptops do, but in a smaller form factor. Many tablet computers offer such features as cameras, video recording and playback, Internet browsing with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, 3G or 4G cellular Internet connections, speeds almost equal to desktop and laptop wireless computing speeds and sometimes faster. Some tablets also have dual core processors, giving the devices the same processing power that desktops and laptops have.

Tablets also have some downfalls that manufacturers have begun to address. Tablets lack physical keyboards, large amounts of storage, and they have a short battery life. However, most are compatible with microSD cards for added storage. For the battery problem, most offer extra, switchable batteries. As for the keyboard, most have Bluetooth or Wi-Fi compatible keyboards available. The only thing that would make a tablet better would cellular calling capabilities, but Skype and video chat easily replace this feature.

Will Desktops Die?

Desktop ownership has declined since laptops became popular. In fact, only 58 percent of Americans one, an all time low from the 69 percent who owned one in April of 2006. Laptop ownership initially increased, but both laptop and desktop computer ownership fell as tablets were introduced to the market, according to Pew Research Center.

While the desktop market is fading, it will remain necessary on some level, at least for some industries, and especially for those people who work from home. Anyone working on the Internet such as Web designers, Internet Marketers, freelance writers, anyone who works exclusively online needs a desktop.

Imagine a tablet's battery running out with no warning while in the middle of updating a client's website, or in the middle of writing a 30-page e-book; all that work would be lost. Imagine trying to test code on a tablet PC, or trying to store more than 64 GB of data.

The ultimate debate is if the tablet computer's popularity will kill the desktop. No, because these tasks are almost impossible to perform on a tablet, desktop computers will remain a viable market. Nevertheless, once tablet computers overcome these downfalls, desktops will indeed die.

Sources :

Press Room, "Apple Launches iPad," Apple

Melissa Perenson, "The Tablets of the CTIA 2011," PC World.in

Shawn Dubravac, "2011 CES Tablets," Shawn Dubravac's Two Opinions

Peter, "Was MWC 2011 all about tablets this year? Here are all the slates we saw," GSM Arena Blog

"Apple II," "Compaq Portable PC," Macintosh PowerBook," Grid Compass 1101," Old Computers

"comScore Reports January 2011 U.S. Mobile Subscriber Market Share," ComScore