Tech Advances Spurring Stability in Great Plains

A survey of long-term trends in population, farm income, and crop production in the agricultural Great Plains published in the October 2007 issue of BioScience finds that technological advances have greatly increased production of major crops and allowed rural populations to remain stable over the past 50 years even as metropolitan populations have soared.

The advances lead to market expansion, such as improved crop varieties, irrigation, and fertilizer use.

Conversely, the survey also shows that rural counties with extensive irrigation have increased their populations slightly, although less-irrigated counties that offer fewer opportunities for farm-associated work have decreased their populations slightly. The Great Plains' population is therefore overall falling behind that of the country as a whole. Additionally, their proportion of people over 55 has grown rapidly creating a disproportional imbalance in population that may tend to a destabilizing trend.

The authors of the survey report, William J. Parton and Dennis Ojima of Colorado State University and Myron P. Gutmann of the University of Michigan, note that the increases in crop productivity that are spurred by technological advances have had significantly substantial negative environmental impacts. These negative environmental impacts include loss of soil carbon and high nitrate runoff especially in irrigated areas, which are those that are having population increase. Moreover, farms have become more dependent on government subsidies to meet the increased costs of agricultural inputs (technological innovations and advances in equipment and seeds through corporate Research and Development (R & D) programs) and fuel.

Plans to develop biofuels--fuels made from organic renewable sources such as plant (e. g., corn, soy) or treated municipal or industrial wastes--could benefit agricultural counties. Countering this, increased crop prices generated from technological advances can threaten the stability of income from livestock production, as crop price increase threatens livestock feed supplies. Further, increased crop prices could accelerate soil erosion while reducing beneficial soil carbon, which is a necessary part of the carbon cycle.

Declining resources in natural aquifers (water resources) and increasing farm equipment fuel costs represent another potentially worrisome trend, since both will add to the cost of irrigation, which will be manifest in crop productivity and prices.

The authors of the survey conclude that threats to the Great Plains' society and environment are currently counterbalanced by "surprising [production and population] stability" and the potential for short- and medium-term sustainability.

Note: BioScience is the monthly journal of the American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS). BioScience publishes commentary and peer-reviewed articles covering a wide range of biological fields, with a focus on "Organisms from Molecules to the Environment." The journal has been published since 1964. AIBS is an umbrella organization for professional scientific societies and organizations that are involved with biology. It represents some 200 member societies and organizations with a combined membership of about 250,000

"Great Plains' historical stability vulnerable to future changes; Aging rural populations, reduced water for irrigation and rising fuel prices are long-term threats," American Institute of Biological Sciences.