Texas Exit Polls Show Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama Holding Their Own

On March 4, 2008, Obama went for the knockout blow, and Clinton tried to put the dual into the final round. Predictions made early in the primary season had Clinton wrapping up the nomination with the Texas and Ohio primaries. However, with a string of eleven consecutive victories, Obama had surpassed Clinton in delegates and momentum. Recent polls showed Obama catching up to Clinton and even surpassing her in Texas. The question remained. Could Obama get enough of Clinton's supporters to cross over to win Texas? Or would Clinton hold onto her constituencies, and even convince Obama supporters to cross over and vote for her. Early exit polls show that each candidate held onto the same type of supporters as earlier primaries. According to CNN, Clinton won among women, older voters and Latinos. Obama won among the men, younger voters and among African-American voters. The White vote seemed even, with younger voters preferring Obama, and older voters preferring Clinton.

The Houston Chronicle, picking-up an Associated Press story, reported that Clinton benefited from those who decided early on whom to vote for, when Clinton held a large lead over Obama. They also noted that despite Obama's progress in lessening Clinton's lead, could not make significant gains into Clinton's core supporters. Clinton, however, was able to make gains among White voters, who had been shifting towards Obama in the recent primaries.

In Texas, the Latino vote was significant. In California and New Mexico, where Latinos accounted for a large part of the voters, Clinton emerged victorious. ABC News reported that 30% of the voters were Latino and Clinton won 65-35 among those voters, roughly the same percentage as in other states. Again, age did play a factor. Among younger Latino voters, Clinton's margin of support was 5%, however, she received considerably more support among older Latino voters. CNN's exit polls confirmed the same. African-American voters overwhelmingly supported Obama, receiving 85% to Clinton's 15%. This is roughly the same percentage as in other states. African-American comprised approximately 25% of the voters. 60% of White voters voted for Clinton. 60% of those who hold only a high school diploma supported Clinton, while 60% of those who graduated from college supported Obama. Other breakdowns showed that the vote in Texas repeated what had happened in previous primaries: Clinton was strong among Latinos, older voters, women, the less educated, and the less affluent, while Obama remained strong among African-Americans, younger voters, the higher educated, and more affluent. The wild-card, as has been previously, are White middle-class men who seemed to be supporting Obama in more recent contests.

One interesting category in the CNN exit polls was the role of the debate between Clinton and Obama in Texas. Slightly more than half the voters indicated that the debate was important to them. This indicates that debates still do have an impact on how people will vote, despite being late in the primary season. Otherwise, the Texas exit polls have only reinforced what has been true of earlier primaries. With the momentum shifting towards Obama in recent weeks, Clinton needed Texas and Ohio to remain competitive and perhaps catch up to Obama in the delegates race. While Clinton may not regain the lead after Texas, she will remain competitive after Texas and Ohio. If the Texas exit polls hold up for the remaining primaries, the Democratic nominee can be predicted at this point. However, as it has been all along, if one of the candidate builds momentum in the other's base from this point forward, that candidate will probably win. Although no more debates are currently scheduled, another debate may make a difference in who becomes the Democratic nominee.