Thanksgiving NFL Picks 2009

With the recent addition of an NFL night game to Thanksgiving, we now have 3 games to watch. All 3 Thanksgiving games have playoff implications for at least one of the teams involved, which can change the outcome of any NFL game. Let's take a look at each of these Thanksgiving games and pick some winners against the point spread. Make sure you are maximizing your probability of winning by checking out 6 Rules While Gambling on Sports

Green Bay Packers at -11
Detroit Lions

Analysis: Both teams come into this Thanksgiving game with some key injuries. For Green Bay, Aaron Kampman and Al Harris are both done for the season. For the Lions, both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson probably aren't going to play either. The Lions defense is one of the worst in the NFL and the Packers should have no problem exploiting them. The Packers injuries on defense are to 2 important players but the Lions will struggle to expose them with a back up quarterback and no Calvin Johnson. In general, it's tough to pick a road team that is favored by a point spread of 11 in an NFL game, but the circumstances here warrant it .

Pick: Green Bay -11

Oakland Raiders at
Dallas Cowboys -14

Analysis: The Oakland Raiders have given up just 8 passing touchdowns this year and have overall been one of the better teams against the pass in the NFL. However, they have been shredded on the ground for 16 rushing touchdowns and are one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. Meanwhile, Dallas has scored just 7 points in each of their last 2 games. On Thanksgiving day, Dallas will probably look to run the ball a lot which will help shorten the game. With more running and Dallas having trouble scoring lately, the Raiders should be able to stay close enough to cover the point spread of 14.

Pick: Oakland +14

New York Giants at -7
Denver Broncos

Analysis: Denver's recent struggles have made them a 7 point under dog at home on Thanksgiving night. The Giants, who are no strangers to losing streaks, got back on track last week with a win at home vs. Atlanta. The point spread of 7 was a bit of a surprise to me. While I think the Giants should be the road favorites, I see a close field goal game playing out. Look for Denver's defense to buckle down and keep them in the game until the end.

Pick: Broncos +7