The 2010 Illinois Senate Election: Giannoulias Edging Past Kirk

In a state that voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama for president in 2008, the 2010 Illinois Senate race is considered a toss-up between Democrat Alexander "Alexi" Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk. The office is held by Sen. Roland Burris, a Democrat, who was appointed by the embattled Rod Blagojevich, while he still held the office of governor, in December 2008. Burris was appointed to the seat vacated by Obama when he was elected president. Burris has opted not to run in the 2010 election for a new term, leaving the seat open.

Meanwhile, however, there will be a second, special election held concurrently with the general election in November to fill the few weeks of office remaining under the original Obama/Burris Senate term, according to local television news station WTVO. Burris is not eligible for the special election because he is not on the 2010 general election ballot. In an odd turn of events, it is possible, although exceedingly unlikely, that Kirk and Giannoulias will both win the Illinois Senate seat; one for the six short weeks between the election and the Jan. 3 start of the new six-year term and the other for the following six years.

Candidates for Senator from Illinois (six-year term)

Candidate: Alexander "Alexi" Giannoulias

Party: Democrat

Political experience: Giannoulias was elected Illinois state treasurer in 2006 and has held the office since then.

Professional experience: Giannoulias held the position of Vice President with Broadway Bank, a company founded by his father according to information at the Giannoulias campaign website. The Broadway Bank website now hosts a message from the FDIC announcing that it was closed on April 23^rd, 2010 and placed into federal receivership.

Key issues: Giannoulias, on the issues section of his campaign website, has proposed a series of economic proposals in a program he calls Future Works, which includes job creation tax credits for small businesses and a "payroll tax holiday on the first $20,000 of those making up to $75,000." He also supports tighter oversight of corporate excesses and a tougher stance against China's unfair trade practices. Giannoulias is a supporter of President Obama's Affordable Care Act and would seek to build upon it to increase coverage in underserved communities and to institute a "non-profit health insurance option."

Endorsements: President Barack Obama has endorsed Giannoulias and starred at a fund-raiser on his behalf on August 5^th of this year according to press clippings posted on the Giannoulias campaign website. Giannoulias has also received endorsements from The Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters according to his Twitter post on June 8^th. His website also notes the endorsement of the Human Rights Campaign, a gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender rights group.

Giannoulias' 2010 election prospects: Although the Illinois Senate race is too close to call, numerous polls cited by Real Clear Politics consistently showed the Republican candidate, Kirk, with a three to eight point lead from April through early June. Multiple polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling since the start of July, however, show Giannoulias even or up to two points ahead of Kirk. In a state where President Obama's job performance still received a somewhat or strong approval rating from 54% of likely voters in an August 9^th Rasmussen Reports poll, the President's endorsement and his appearance for Giannoulias should help him break the deadlock, if he can narrow Kirk's campaign war chest lead. The Center for Responsive Politics reports that Giannoulias had raised $5.6 million to Kirk's $8.9 million as of August 10th, 2010.

Candidate: Mark Steven Kirk

Party: Republican

Political experience: Of the two main candidates for Senate, Kirk has the greater political experience. He has elected to the House of Representatives by Illinois voters in the 10^th District five times, serving there since 2000. He serves on the House Appropriations Committee, the Subcommittee on Homeland Security, the Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government, and the Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs.

Professional experience: Kirk's official House website biography lists him as an intelligence officer in the Naval Reserve where he holds the rank of commander. Kirk's campaign says he started his career working for Illinois Rep. John Porter. He has also held positions at the World Bank, the State Department, and the House international Relations Committee.

Key issues: Kirk's campaign website advocates lowering business taxes and reducing regulation on small businesses, a move he says will help them create more jobs.On health care, Kirk opposes the Affordable Care Act and instead supports a package that includes tort reform, national competition, and tax credits for individuals who buy their own health insurance without employer involvement. Kirk also supports an overhaul of the river, road and rail transportation infrastructure of Illinois that is used to transport goods from Illinois farmers to out-of-state markets.

Endorsements: Kirk's campaign blog notes that he has received endorsements from actor Gary Sinise and the Illinois National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Javier Hernandez of the NY Times City Room blog reports that Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York also hosted a fundraiser for Kirk. It is also noteworthy that the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters had previously supported Kirk, but have switched to Giannoulias in the senatorial election. Additionally, Kirk is reported by the Wall Street Journal to have failed to secure, despite his overtures, the endorsement of Sarah Palin during his primary bid in November of 2009.

Kirk's 2010 election prospects: It's still too early for it to be a decisive blow, but the Kirk campaign must prevent the slight progress of Giannoulias in recent polling from continuing. It is not clear that adopting the national GOP campaign strategy of linking the local candidate to President Obama and his policies will work as well in Obama's home state as it does in other regions. Most importantly, Kirk must avoid any further gaffes (like the one in which he "misidentified" an award he claimed to have received for his service in the Navy Reserves as reported by The Washington Post) that draw media and public attention away from his core message.

The choice between Kirk and Giannoulias: Kirk and Giannoulias differ on their views on two of President Obama's signature issues, economic stimulus and the Affordable Care Act. Kirk opposes both and, as would be expected, Giannoulias supports both strongly. From an economic perspective, they both support small business tax breaks. Giannoulias takes the position that too little corporate oversight was largely responsible for the excesses that led to economic collapse and recession, while Kirk states that excessive taxation and regulation prevents business from creating jobs to lead us out of the recession.

Illinois at a glance: Illinois is a state of 12.9 million people according to 2009 U.S. Census estimates. Of those, 12.2% live below poverty level compared with 13.2% nationally. As of 2008, the median household income in the state was $56,230 per year, just about $4000 more than the national average. The Illinois state website reveals that the top manufacturing activity is food-processing which adds approximately $14 billion to the state GDP each year. Corn accounts for 40% of the state's agricultural commodity output as measured in dollar value.