The Best Free Agent Signings for 2007

These are the contracts that make the most sense, based upon the level of ability of the player, the length of the contract and the amount of money paid. Some of these players will not earn their pay, but each of these contracts make sense.

Moises Alou (Mets) - 1 yr, $8 million. Yes, he's 40, but he's a career .300 hitter, he gets on base OK at .368, and he's slugged over .500 for his career (.516). A lot of Mets fans have been grumbling over this signing, but it's just a 1 year deal. If it works out and Alou is productive for 1 more year, great. If not, so what? Nothing is owed after this year. Worth the risk deal.

Joe Borowski (Indians) - 1 yr, $4.25 Million. Had a decent year for the Marlins last year, saving 36 games. Another smart one year deal that could pan out great, or not, but nothing is owed beyond this year.

Sean Casey (Tigers) - 1 yr, $4 million. Did not have a great year last year, but he's a lifetime .300 hitter, and again, it's just a 1 year deal. He's 33, so he could bounce back this year, or not, but the Tigers owe him nothing beyond this year. If he's got anything left, expect him to show it for another contract.

Octavio Dotel (Royals) - 1 yr, $5 Million. Has pitched to 83% of the league ERA in career, and averged 10.3 K's per 9 innings. Injuries are his problem, but another 1 year contract that could payoff big time if he's healthy.

Ray Durham (Giants) - 2yrs, $14 Million. Reasonable contract for a second baseman who averages 107 runs scored per 162 games. Slugged over .500 for first time in career last year.

Eric Gagne - (Rangers) - 1 yr, $6 Million. Reasonable gamble that could really payoff if he can get back to half of what he used to be. If he can't pitch anymore, it's just a 1 year write-off.

Marcus Giles (Padres) - 1 yr, $3.2 Million. Numbers really declined last year, as he couldn't even slug over .400. He's only 28 though, and it's reasonable to expect he can bounce back and have a good year, in which case he's a real bargain. He'll be motivated to have a big year for another contract.

Kei Igawa (Yankees) - 5 yrs, $20 Million. His record in Japan is pretty good at: 1,244 Innings/ 8.5 K's/ 2.9 BB's/ 3.15 ERA, with a lifetime record of 86-60 (.589). If he can come anywhere close to those numbers here, the Yankees have a real bargain at $4 Million per year. Well worth the risk.

Akinori Iwamura (D Rays) - 3 yrs, $7.7 Million. Numbers in Japan decent enough at: 188 HR's, 570 RBI's and 550 Runs in 3580 AB's. Lifetime Average of .300, with .366 OBP and .519 SLG. Has stolen 67 bases, but he strikesout an awful lot, 878 total. That's about 25% of the time. Still, the Devil Rays are only paying him $2.6 Million per year. Even if he stinks they don't owe him much, and he could be a decent player for them. Worth the risk.

Steve Kline (Giants) - 2 yrs, $3.5 Million. Very reasonable contract for this lefty specialist. Has pitched to just 79% of the League ERA in his career.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox) - 6 yrs, $52 Million. Career numbers in Japan are very similar to Igawa's at: 1402 Innings/ 8.7 K's/ 3.2 BB's/ 2.95 ERA, with a lifetime record of 108-60 (.643). What's intriguing about him is that he was lights out last year in Japan, going: 186 Innings/ 9.7 K's/ 1.6 BB's/ 2.13 ERA, with a 17-5 record. If he can come anywhere close to those numbers here, he's a bargain at under $9 Million per year. Worth the risk, but Igawa's the better risk for the money they are being paid.

Aandy Pettitte (Yankees) - 1 yr, $16 Million. That's a lot of dough, but it's just for one year, with an option for the same money for next year. So if he's great, they get him back, and if he's not good or injured, there's no more money owed. Gives the Yankees back the big lefty they have been missing since they let him leave. As I have documented in a previous posting (10-10-06) the Yankees do not win World Series when they lack a dominant lefty starter.

David Riske (Royals) - 1 yr, $2.25 Million. Reasonable contract for set-up reliever who has pitched to just 81% of the League ERA in his career, with a career 2.3 K to BB ratio. Good insurance in case Dotel does not pan out, he can close games for the Royals if they let him.

Barry Zito (Giants) - 7 yrs, $126 Million. Yes, it's the biggest contract ever for a pitcher, and no he's not the best pitcher in baseball. But he's probably the most durable starting pitcher in baseball, having started 34 or 35 games in each of the last 6 years. And he's only 28. And he is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, having pitched to just 79% of the League ERA in his career. That's a very good number that only a handful of pitchers in the Majors today can beat. Add it all up, and the contract is as reasonable as can be expected for someone making an average of $18 Million per year. Unless he blows his arm out, he is not going to be a bust.