The Case for the F-22 Raptor

The current projections for F-22 Raptors end at a final number of only 183 aircraft¹. By comparison, there are over 500 F-15 Eagles in service², which is the aircraft the F-22 is designed to replace. Critics peg the aircraft as expensive, and with the collapse of the Soviet Union, unnecessary. Recent events may refute both points.

Proponents of canceling the F-22 program at the current force level often cite the lack of an opponent in any theoretical enemy air force. This is currently true, but Russia and China both have aircraft under develop that may at least partially challenge the F-22 in the next five to ten years. The time frame is important, because lead times on modern aircraft are extremely long. The F-22 Raptor is over 20 years in development³. If a future opponent were to equal or surpass the F-22, developing a successor would take longer than we might have. It would be far simpler and easier to have a sufficient number on hand to upgrade via software and hardware , which the F-22 is actually designed for.

Another issue with the "no opponent" argument is that if a credible opposing fighter were to be fielded and/or an advanced air defense network were to be fought (such as that being fielded by Iran), losses would occur. No weapon, no matter how advanced over its opponents, is invincible. The downing of an F-117 Nighthawk (the Stealth Fighter) by the Serbians in 1999 proved that⁴. Production rates for the F-22 are about 2 a month or less. Even at current rates, any losses in combat or accidents would be hard to make up. If the production lines are shut down, there would be little chance of restarting them, as 5th generation aircraft like the F-22 require highly specialized manufacturing personnel, techniques and equipment. Those resources would surely be directed to other projects and would be unavailable for instant re-tasking to build replacement Raptors.

The credible opponent argument is beginning to ring hollow even now. During exercises against the Indian air force, Indian pilots flying Russian-made Sukhoi-30 aircraft gave Air Force F-15s an alarming run for their money. Despite "home field advantage," Air Force pilots had a very difficult time against the Indians. According to Elmdendorf AFB officials, "the lesson of [exercise] Cope India is that almost any nation could surpass the United States' air combat capability if the Pentagon does not continue to invest in better training and technology⁵." While India is currently a friendly country, this may not always be so, and in any case China and Iran are rapidly improving their capabilities. No one who watches defense issues would confuse those countries as friendly.

Another lesson from the Indian air force exercise is that the Air Force deliberately fought battles where the F-15 was outnumbered and stated that this was a factor in the all-too-frequent defeat of F-15s. This could prove prescient. How outnumbered do we want the F-22 to be in any future conflict? Victory typically depends on either superior technology or superior numbers. What if we dont have either or not enough of one to make up for lack of the other?

The upcoming F-35 Lightning II is going to be quite capable, but is supposed to be a replacement for the F-16 Fighting Falcon, not the F-15 Eagle, and in any case will not be an equal to the F-22, despite such claims by proponents of cutting back on Raptors⁶. We should not count on simply buying more F-35s to fill the Raptor gap.

The price of the aircraft then becomes a relative thing. Is it more expensive to buy the aircraft or lose the war? For that matter, is it more expensive to buy the aircraft than lose the technical skill to build it or a future aircraft? The manufacturing base in the United States has long been declining, and the loss of both the workers and tooling to build such advanced weapons and machinery would be a disaster.

It is therefore imperative that the F-22 Raptor continue in production, even if it is very low rate, for the near future. America cannot afford to lose the F-22 from a military, industrial or economic standpoint.

If President Obama is worried about paying for "Cold War weapons we don't use," someone should remind him that if the unthinkable were to occur, he'll be worrying about something else entirely.....the Future War weapons we don't have.

Notes:

1. F-22 Raptor Production, GlobalSecurity.org

2. Fact Sheets: F-15 Eagle, Air Force Links

3. Fact Sheets: F-22 Raptor, Air Force Links

4. USA Today, Serb discusses 1999 downing of stealth, Associated Press

5. Hampton Stephens, USAF: Indian Exercises Showed Need For F/A-22, Changes In Training, Inside The Air Force, June 4, 2004

6. Issue Brief, F-22 vs. F-35 Comparison, Air Force Association