The Confrontation with Iran Could Decide the Presidential Election of 2012
The American People Will Rally Around President Obama If a Crisis Develops
Introduction
Preventing future wars and saving American lives is one of my major objectives as a political analyst and as a writer. While the Iraq War was a preemptive war designed to prevent a future attack on the United States, the potential war with Iran is not preemptive and may be thrust upon us and we may not have a choice. This article will explain how the US could become involved in a crisis or a shooting war with Iran, and how it would affect the Presidential election which we are covering in detail. Let us start with the scenarios that could lead to a confrontation or even a shooting war.
Two Scenarios that Lead to a Confrontation or War with Iran
The sanctions which have already been imposed on Iran, and a potential Israeli air strike against Iran could easily lead to a confrontation or a shooting war with Iran.
Iran is outraged at Western sanctions imposed in an effort to thwart Iran's nuclear program. Tensions have been increasing since November when the United Nations International Atomic Energy Commission released a report that raised serious concerns about Iran's nuclear weapons program and published specific details about the amount of low enriched uranium Iran is believed to have acquired. Recently, the European Union agreed to a phased-in ban on oil from Iran. In the United States, President Obama signed legislation designed to isolate Iran's Central Bank. Iran is striking back with military and economic threats against the West, and may attack the United States.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and many others believe that Israel probably will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in April, May or June. The advances in Iran's nuclear program has increased the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran. Israel has demonstrated a willingness to take decisive actions against nuclear threats, real and perceived. In 1981, the Israeli Air Force successfully attacked the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, and destroyed a partially completed Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007. Iran presents a much greater threat than either Iraq or Syria.
Iran's Policy Options
Iran has a number of options that it could use to respond to the sanctions and the Israeli air strike. All of these options could lead to a confrontation and possibly war.
Iran could attack American and Western interests overseas, use its sleeper cells to attack the United States on American soil, or interrupt the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf by closing the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has already said it would respond to a closing of the strait of Hormuz.
The failed plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States on American soil shows that Iran is more willing to attack the United States as a means to obtain its foreign policy objectives. Iran has sleeper cells in the United States that can be used to launch an attack. Iran is also plotting against American and European interests overseas.
The Iranian Hostage Crisis and the Presidential Election of 1980
In 1980, the Hostage Crisis with Iran determined the outcome of a Presidential Election. President Jimmy Carter is widely regarded as a dismal failure as President and he was one of our least popular Presidents. He was elected President in 1976 and ran for re-election in 1980. In 1979 the United States suffered from high unemployment and very high inflation and interests rates. President Carter took the blame for this and he was very unpopular in the polls. So the other big name Democrat in the country, the late Senator Ted Kennedy decided to run against him. Kennedy jumped to a big lead in the polls, and it looked as tough he could take the nomination away from an incumbent President. Then the Iranians stormed the American Embassy and took the American diplomats hostage. The American People are very patriotic and always rally around their President in times of crisis and when the country is at war. This is exactly what happened during the Iranian Hostage Crisis. The American People rallied around President Carter, and he overcame Senator Kennedy's lead and won the Democratic Nomination for President.
The Iranian Hostage Crisis also dominated the General Election. President Carter and the Republican Nominee, the late Ronald Reagan, went head to head and were stalemated until the very end of the election. In the end President Carter could not get the hostages out of Iran, and this led to a landslide victory for Ronald Reagan, who went on to be a two term President.
Implications for the 2012 Presidential Election
If the United States and Iran end up in a confrontation or a shooting war in the fall of 2012, the American People will rally around President Obama. The patriotic response will be overwhelming and this will lead to a big victory for President Obama.
Source: www.lignet.com/ArticleAnalysis/Estimating-Possible-Iranian_Retaliation-to-Increased International Sanctions
2. http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/us-intel-head-james-clapper-worldwide-threats
Published by Mathew Paul
I published my biography in the article listed below. Please read it and let me know what you think. Thank you. http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6014872/the_life_of_a_liberal_arts_major.html?cat=4 View profile
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1 Comments
Post a CommentInteresting article. Maybe you could answer a few questions I have.
Do you think it's possible that our president would allow things to devolve in an effort to distract the American voter, perhaps allowing some military conflict refelcting one of your scenarios where the American people rally behind the president? Do you believe war is imminent and, if so, why would we have begun withdrawal of troops in Iraq? Our president has been less than supportive of Israel, at least publicly; how do you think we'd respond if war ensues as a result of an Israeli airstrike against Iran? Would Obama offer military support? Also, Israel has known of this thret for quite a long time and rumors of an impending strike against Iran's nuclear facilities have swirled for a few years now. Why would they have waited this long if an attack is imminent? Also, you referenced the scenario of 1979 with President Carter. Do you feel this is a similar situation, given that Iran was embroiled in a full scale revolution at that time? Last, how would armed conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran affect the situation in Egypt and Syria, if at all? Thanks, I'll look for your answers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!