The Democrats on Super Tuesday, 2008: A State-by-State Analysis

The Democratic side of the 2008 presidential race has already boiled down to the two heavy hitters in America's "politics of change." Even though everyone looks at Super Tuesday as the clinch pin for who will take the Democratic nomination at the convention, there are too many close calls in the race for this to be the case. Here are my predictions for how the day will go for the Democrats (showing how many delegates are up for grabs).

Alabama (60) is a statistical dead heat from the poll perspective. But I call this one for Obama by a good 3 or 4 %.

Alaska (18) shows Clinton ahead by a good 9%, but recent shifts in that state's voters may indicate a much closer race. I still call it for Clinton, but by a slim margin; by no means a mandate.

Arizona (67) will not even be close. This one goes to Clinton by a large margin.

Arkansas (47) is a strange one, politically, for the Democrats. It would appear to be a slam dunk for Clinton, but Obama would also have claims for a strong showing with the young Democrats of this state. But, in the end, I would have to say Clinton on this one.

California (441) polls have Clinton ahead by a large margin. But I don't think these numbers depict an accurate view of how Californians will be casting their ballots come Tuesday. With Edwards out of the running, Obama is sure to pick up a number of these voters. I think Obama and Clinton will have to share this state's large number of delegates.

Colorado (71) is a quandary, indeed. Most will call it for Clinton. But I say Obama carries this one.

Connecticut (60) is one of those states where Clinton and Obama are going to be a tough call for the network types to make. It will go back and forth. Most will say Clinton will win this one, but I am going out on a limb and say that Obama will win here. It may be so close, however, that some in the Clinton camp will call for a recount.

Delaware (23) is such a liberal state for the Democrats, one would have to go with Clinton to win this one big. I would have to agree.

Georgia (103) should be firmly in the Obama camp. Clinton will make a fair showing, though.

Idaho (23) will be a huge win for Obama come Tuesday.

Illinois (185) should hold no surprise. Obama will make a decisive victory here with a very large gap between him and Clinton.

Kansas (41) is one of those states that will be considered a win in the Clinton camp only to be taken away by Obama in the end. Edwards' withdrawal will be a big factor in this win for Obama.

Massachusetts (121) will be by no means decisive as far as the results go, but still it will be Clinton in the end.

Minnesota (88) will be one of those states where Bill Clinton will prove an undermining asset. Early polls will show Clinton with a commanding lead, only to lose to Obama in the end by a slight margin.

Missouri (88) should go decisively to Clinton.

New Jersey (127) will be one of those scary states. It will be all Clinton for the large part of early returns, but Obama will close the gap swiftly. Before all is done, it will be a close one to call (though I predict the news outlets will predict too early and get lumps in their throats when the gap is closed). But I still call this close one for Clinton.

New Mexico (38) is a Clinton victory.

New York (281) should be running heavily in Clinton's favor, and the polls reflect this. However, no one should sell the Obama campaign too short here. It will still go to Clinton, but the margin may make the NY Senator think a bit.

N. Dakota (21) is another Obama win. Not clean and decisive, but a win nonetheless.

Oklahoma (47) will be a very close one, with no clear winner until all the votes are counted. I call this one for Clinton.

Tennessee (85) is another in a line of Clinton states. But I would be surprised if it was a clear cut victory. Obama will make it a tough go here, with the margin very slim.

Utah (29) is another state where the majority of Edwards supporters will cast their ballots for Obama. But in the end, it should be Clinton with the win.

American Samoa (9) should go in the Clinton win category. Though what this will mean at the DNC Convention is a mystery, as the way the delegates vote is convoluted.

Remember, to get out and vote. And just because they (or I) make a prediction as to who may win, it is your vote that counts and decides the day.

Sources:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
RealClearPoltics

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/AS-D.phtml
American Samoa Democrats

http://www.demnpl.com/
North Dakota Democratic NPL Party

http://www.idaho-democrats.org/
Idaho Democratic Party