The Effects on Population Size and Growth in Australia

The present prospective observational study is aimed to assess the effects of the major factors like births, deaths, and overseas and interstate migration on population size and growth in Australia. The study is based on the data on population change in Australia for the years 1996-1997 and 2005-2006 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and sheds light on what affects Australian population's size and growth. Although the conclusions cannot be structural or casual, they still combine the frameworks and mirror the conclusions of the studies in Australia, emphasizing the importance of studying population growth.

Introduction

Recently, there has been renewed interest among the researchers in the major determinants and factors influencing population size and growth. This resurgence has been driven by the theories predicting crucial roles for overseas and interstate migration as well as births and deaths as engines of population size and growth. The present observational study was conducted to examine and assess the effects on population size and growth in Australia.

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, the estimated resident population (ERP) at June 2006 made up 20.7 million people. This shows the increase of 6.6% or almost 1.3 million people since June 2001. The average annual growth rate comprises about 1.3%. This increase in population size was even larger and faster compared with the corresponding increase in Australian population between 1996 and 2001 that made up 6.0% (or 1.1 million people) at an average growth rate of 1.2% per year.

The core component of population size and growth is reproduction (the extent to which one generation is able to replace itself in the next generation) (Hugo G. , 1986). For example in case no change in mortality and no migration occur, the population exposes the tendency to have a zero growth. In case mortality rate is constant, and there is no migration, the fertility rate lower an average of 2 children per woman will evidently result in decline in population. Migration rate (both interstate and overseas) significantly impacts Australian population. Therefore, these three variables were chosen to assess the effects on population size and growth in Australia.

Methods

The study used the data from ABS Publications 3105.0.65.001 Australian Historical Population Statistics, 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics in order to examine the components of population change. The information set is quite extensive, as it includes population, demographics and immigration statistics. The figures are disaggregated into sectors, such as births, deaths, natural increase, net overseas migration, net interstate migration, population change and estimated resident population; however, they mention no economic factors, as the focus of the given observational study is on the growth and size of Australian population. The statistics data was used to examine the effects of natural increase, deaths and births, as well as immigration (overseas and interstate) on Australian population size and growth.

Results

The observational study was based on the data on population change in Australia for the years 1996-1997 and 2005-2006. As it can be seen from Table 1, the number of migrants arriving in Australia between 2005 and 2006 made up 132,000 people arrived from about 200 world countries. The vast majority of them (17.7%) were born in the UK, New Zealand (14.4%), China (8.0%), India (8.6%), and Philippines (3.9%). It should be also noted that not all Australian immigrants intend to stay in Australia permanently, as many of them arrive at a temporary basis (Nations, 1999).

Table 1 - Settlers arrival figures and net permanent migration in Australia for the period 1996-1997 and 2005-2006

Years

Settler Arrival Numbers

Net Permanent Migration

1996-1997

85 800

55 900

1997-1998

77 300

45 300

1998-1999

84 100

49 000

1999-2000

92 300

51 200

2000-2001

107 400

60 800

2001-2002

88 900

40 700

2002-2003

93 900

43 500

2003-2004

111 600

52 500

2004-2005

123 400

60 800

2005-2006

131 600

63 700

The next important thing to consider is natural increase (comprising of death and birth rates) that also has a significant impact on population size and growth. According to the information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the ERP (estimated resident population) was 20.7 million citizens (2006) (Australian Demographic Statistics, 2006), while in 2001 the estimated resident population was 1.3 million people less, thus indicating a 6.6% increase in Australian population for the period 2001-2006. As it can be noted, the population in Australia has experienced a steady growth by 1-1.4% per year during the past decade. Population in Victoria has experienced its highest growth rate (1.4%) since June 1972). Western Australia's population growth rate of 2.0% was also its largest rate since 1990, when it made up 2.2%. South Australia's population growth was also the largest since 1991 (1.0%).

Table 2 - Population in Australia - Key Figures 2001-2006

Population at end June 2001 ('000)

Population at end June 2006 ('000)

New South Wales

6532.5

6827.7

Victoria

4829.0

5091.7

Queensland

3627.8

4053.4

South Australia

1502.4

1554.7

Western Australia

1909.8

2050.9

Tasmania

470.3

488.9

Northern Territory

197.6

206.7

Australian Capital Territory

314.2

328.8

Australia

19 386.7

20 605.5

As we can see from the Table 3, birth rate in 2000-1 made up 247.5 and in 2005-06 increased to 264.3 (Australian Demographic Statistics, 2001); The increase in death rate was quite significant (from 128.9 in 2000-1 to 133.1 in 2005-06), however, it had almost no impact on population decline, as the Australia's population growth rate remained positive.

Table 3 - Population Change in Australia, 2000-01 - 2005-06

Period

Births ('000)

Deaths ('000)

Natural Increase ('000)

Net overseas migration ('000)

At the end of the period ('000)

2000-01

247.5

128.9

118.6

135.7

19 413.2

2001-02

247.4

130.3

117.2

110.6

19 641.0

2002-03

247.4

132.2

115.2

116.5

19 872.6

2003-04

252.1

133.2

118.9

100.0

20 091.5

2004-05

255.8

131.4

124.5

123.8

20 339.8

2005-06

264.3

133.1

131.2

134.6

20 605.5

Discussion

As it was already mentioned, population size and growth in the states and territories of Australia comprise of three major components - natural increase, net overseas and interstate migration. Evidently, overseas immigration, comprising of net long-term and permanent arrivals and departures to the country, have significant impact on the population size and growth in Australia, while natural increase affects the country's population to a lesser extent.

As we can see from the tables and information taken from reliable sources, the rate of natural increase has been slowing down, while the population size continues to grow steadily. This occurs, primarily, due to steady inflow of immigrants, making immigration the unique aspect influencing Australia's population. Indeed, during the past few decades the contribution of overseas immigration to Australia's population size and growth has become much stronger than the influence of natural increase (which, in its turn, is somehow impacted and stimulated by the past immigration to Australia).

References

Australian Demographic Statistics. (2001). Commonwealth of Australia 2001.

Australian Demographic Statistics. (2006). Commonwealth of Australia 2006.

Hugo, G. (2001). A Century of Population Change in Australia. ABS Year Book Australia.

Hugo, G. Atlas of the Australian People, 1996 Census. 1996 : National Overview.

Hugo, G. (1986). Australia's Changing Population. Melbourne: Oxford University Press.

Nations, U. (1999). 1997 Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations.