The End of Oil

In the United States, fossil fuels account for about 85% of all energy consumption. America's strong dependence on these finite resources has created problems in the past and will create much larger problems in the future. If this problem is not addressed in time, it will lead to a worldwide economic collapse as the American economy runs out of the fossil fuel that supports it.

The Hubbert peak (peak oil) theory was devised by geophysicist Marion King Hubbert in the 1950's. The theory claims that worldwide oil production would "peak" in 1970 and that the amount of oil produced after that would steadily decline. While the date of the peak is fiercely debated, the core of the theory, the peak, is inarguable.

As the Earth's stores of oil and other fossil fuels are used up and these resources become harder and harder to find, worldwide production will decrease. As it decreases, basic economics dictates that prices will rise. Eventually, production will decrease to the point where there is not enough fossil fuels to meet the economic needs of the US and the rest of the world.

The oil shortage that will result from this peak will be fundamentally different from shortages in the past because it will be the result of a geological problem, not a political one. No amount of political bargaining will convince the Earth to suddenly have more oil. The results of this geological shortage will be disastrous.

The US economy relies on cheap energy. Since oil and other fossil fuels account for about 85% of US energy production, and oil usage pervades nearly every area of the economy, a shortage of these fuels would slow, or even reverse, all economic growth in the US.

When this peak is going to happen is seemingly impossible to accurately predict. Estimates range from 100 years from now to 25 years ago. One thing, however, is certain: it will happen.

There is no easy solution to the peak oil crisis. Fossil fuels are so integrated into the economy that it would be impossible to simply stop using them. However, it is possible, and necessary, to begin a worldwide "wean" off of fossil fuels and onto alternative forms of energy. While there are many different alternative energy sources available for many different fields, we will address one that will impact the general population most directly: hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell automobiles.

Oil will be the first fossil fuel to peak, and it will cause the most problems. The most notable of these problems will be transportation. There is not a single product in use today that was not transported using oil. Neither is there a single person that has not used some sort of oil-powered vehicle to get to where they need to go.

When the oil runs out, these vehicles will be crippled. Goods will not reach their destinations; grain from the Midwest will not reach New England; water from the Great Lakes will not reach the people who have no fresh water nearby. The economical impacts will be crippling. There is, however, a logical solution: stop using oil for transportation.

Hybrid cars are a step, but only a small one, in the right direction. By using electric motors in combination with gas or diesel powered engines, car manufacturers can achieve fuel efficiencies that would be difficult or impossible on only petroleum powered engines. These gains in efficiency are fairly small, however.

Hybrid cars have several downfalls that counteract the gains in fuel efficiency that they provide. The initial cost of a hybrid vehicle is much higher than the base models of the same kind. Even after tax deductions and credits provided by the US government for those who purchase these cars, they still must be driven for over 100,000 miles before the fuel savings offsets the increased initial cost. Because of this, consumers have been slow to accept these cars, and there are very few on the road today.

While hybrid cars are a help, they are not a solution. The only real solution to the peak oil crisis is to develop technology that allows for transportation on alternative fuels. The most promising of these fuels is hydrogen. While hydrogen technology has not yet reached a level of practicality that will allow for its widespread use, it could easily get to that level with more research.

The biggest problem with hydrogen fuel is its availability. With gas stations located every few blocks, consumers have grown accustomed to that level of convenience when it comes to refueling. Until hydrogen becomes more widely available, it will be nearly impossible to convince consumers to purchase hydrogen powered cars.

BMW chairman Helmut Panke, who has run the company since 2002, recently said in an interview with Fortune magazine that "BMW will offer a 7-series which will be a bi-fuel car: it will drive on hydrogen fuel and as a backup we will have a gasoline tank." He also sited the lack of hydrogen stations as a problem, stating that "The limited number of hydrogen fuel stations make it impractical to rely solely on hydrogen."

It is clear that the peak oil crisis will present a huge problem, and it is obvious that something must be done. Dependency on oil can be reduced through the use of hybrid and hydrogen powered cars. While hydrogen is not yet practical for widespread use, it can be made so through further research into hydrogen creation and storage, and by encouraging gas stations to begin selling hydrogen fuel as well as gas and diesel.

The peak oil crisis is unavoidable. Fossil fuels are finite, nonrenewable resources; they inevitably must run out. We do not yet know when oil reserves will fall below the level that our world needs, but we must do everything in our power to prepare for that day, before it's too late.