The Forest is Dead.The Wildebeest Will Not Migrate

If you are one of the people who have fallen in love with the great wildebeest migration, if you thought that the timely mass movement of land mammals and their ability to maneuver through life threatening challenges is the most spectacular event on earth, be ready to face the disappointment. But read on the disappointment is nothing compared to the reality.

Each year, the East African wild which encompasses the Serengeti and the Masai Mara game reserves plays host to a living wonder. Over two and half million animals namely: the wildebeest, Zebras, Antelopes and Gazelles migrate en-mass in search of greener pastures. The sight is breathtaking. You can't imagine the sound of four million hooves cluttering rhythmically on the ground. They blow a lot of dust that it is possible to see from space. Everything about the migration is worth contemplating. From the initial convergence of the animals with a purpose to the time they cross the crocodile infested Mara River. Crossing the Mara is the climax of this whole expedition.

But all this is about to come to an end sooner rather than later. Those who have had a first hand account of the migration do agree that it is not an event that should be secluded in history books.

The climate that defines the Serengeti ecosystem is rapidly changing. The Mara River is drying up. It's not raining any more at the Serengeti. The wildebeest population has declined by up to 20% in five years due to drought. And the worst is yet to come. All this is because the Mau complex of forests- in mainland Kenya- is being strangled.

For the last 10 years the Mau escarpment which has six forest blocks has lost half it's forest cover to illegal settlements. Molo forest for instance -one of the six forests blocks- is no more. Initially, the Mau complex covered over 400,000 hectares of land. Presently, slightly over 260,000 hectares is all that is left of what was Africa's second largest forest.

Due to corruption on the part of Kenya's leadership, politically correct individuals were allowed to clear the forests in the early 1990s. Millions of trees were cut down for commercial purposes. Eventually, this gave way to settlements and agricultural activities in the forest. It is worth noting that none of these activities is sustainable in the long run. Without the forest, the land will eventually loose it's potential.

At least 12 rivers source their water from the Mau complex forest. Among them is the Mara river. Without this river - which is drying up faster than new trees can grow- the Serengeti will basically be cut off life.

In just 20 years since humans invaded the Mau complex, half of the forest is wiped out. Water levels in all the 12 rivers have declined significantly. Some of the rivers can no longer sustain marine life and environmentalists predict that half of them will have dried up completely in twenty years. Over the same period of time, the wildebeests' population will have been down sized to the point of being classified as an endangered species.

The forecast gets even sad. The entire land between the Serengeti and the Masai Mara will not support any form of life in the next half century. But looking even closer, the wildebeest migration is becoming less and less glamorous. The animals are fewer than when the phenomenon was first named a wonder of the world just over three years ago.At this rate, in the summer of 2020, the migration will be no more. Consider the fact that the incentive to move is waning each year. The other side is not as green as we thought, so it cannot sustain the animals for long. Therefore the cycle of immigration has been shortened already. The competition among the animals for the scarce pastures will eventually change their behavioural patterns and could be the reason why the Serengeti will no longer be their home. The events might take a shorter time to materialize. In actual fact, the illegal occupation of the Mau forest has turned into a scramble. Who will hear the cry