The Future of the Aral Sea

The Aral Sea is a lake in the lowlands of Turan in Central Asia. It lies between Kazakhstan (in the north) and Uzbekistan (in the south). The Aral Sea is one of less than 20 ancient lakes in the world, and is estimated to be more than 5 million years old. Aral Sea is historically a saline lake, with no outlet. It is fed by two rivers, the Amu Darya (Oxus river) and Syr Darya (Jaxartes river). South of the Sea lies the Amudarya delta, a 28,000 sq km. It is a fertile land. The Aral Sea was also a rich source of fish. Some 20 species were identified by biologists, including sturgeon and catfish.

Once the world's fourth largest lake, the mighty Aral Sea is now in it's death. Why? Because, surface area has shrunk by approximately 60%, and its volume by almost 80%. Today, the Aral Sea's surface area was only 17,160 km², 25% of its original size, and still contracting. Its disaster performed by the former Soviet Union. The Aral Sea area was designated by the former Soviet Union as a region that would provide independence from the West. Since the early 1960's, the Soviet Union decided that the two rivers that fed the Aral Sea, the Amu Darya in the south and the Syr Darya in the northeast, would be diverted to try to irrigate the desert, in order to grow rice, melons, cereal, and ofcourse, cotton, the "white gold". Another potential threat may come from Vozrozhdenie (a large island in the center of the Aral Sea). Vozrozhdenie was a Soviet germ-warfare facility during the Cold War. Scientific expeditions proved that this had been a site for production, testing and later dumping of pathogenic weapons. All of them caused pollution in water, in dust, in soil and sand. All these toxic residuals are easily carried around by the wind. Thats why, people in this region (especially kids), have huge health problems such as tuberculosis, typhus, hepatitis, and a high level of maternity death. For example, residents of Aralsk, located on the edge of the Aral, suffer from typhoid and hepatitis at rates 29 times higher than the national average.

Some schollar predicted that this lake would become two lakes in 2030, if the water input remained the same. While, the two rivers, Amu and Syr Darya, will remain the small amount of precipitation (ca. 10 cm per year), and a variable but small input of drainage waters (a few km3 per year). Then, there are physical and chemical evolution of these southern basins, such as the evolution of the biomass, which follows the evolution of the water chemistry.

Many different solutions to the different problems have been suggested over the years, such as installing Dams to fill the Aral sea, redirecting water from the Volga, Ob and Irtysh rivers, Installing desalination plants. Another way to save the Aral Sea is through more efficient irrigation systems. Unfortunelly, The Supreme Soviet rhetorically supports environmental protection and cleanup programs, declarations and promises made to save the Aral Sea, but no concrete results can be. While, government officials of the Central Asian republics refuse to take responsibility for the Aral crisis.